Thursday 30 May 2013

Rand falls 15% this year


Trade report 30/05/2013

The rand slipped to a new four year low against the dollar on Wednesday as disappointing economic growth figures and fears of strikes in the mining sector pushed foreign investors to sell local bonds and reignited concerns over the currency. The rand has fallen over 15% this year and on Wednesday reached a low of R9.85, coming wit in range of the psychological R10/$ mark.

In international news, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said on Wednesday that Eurozone will fall further behind US and Japan this year. The OECD forecast the world economy would grow 3.1% in 2013 and 4% in 2014, at its twice-yearly economic outlook. In contrast the OECD forecast the Eurozone economy to contract by 0.6% in 2013 and then returning to growth by 1.1% in 2014.

To read the full report, visit the Currency Solutions website. Transferring funds out of South Africa or money transfers into South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at assist you in securing the best foreign exchange rates in Cape Town. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.

Wednesday 29 May 2013

Poor GDP data causes weaker rand

Trade report 29/05/2013

The extent of the economic slowdown in South Africa was made abundantly clear with the release of first quarter economic growth figures. Trade date released on Tuesday showed seasonally adjusted and annualised GDP increased by 0.9% in the first quarter far from the 1.9% what was forecasted. The agriculture and manufacturing industries retracted countering gains in the mining and finance industries. The lack of significant growth may result in the Reserve bank reducing lending rates again later this year.

In international news the American Standar & Poor’s Case-Shiller home price index posted its biggest gains in seven years on Tuesday. House prices increased in each of the 20 cities tracked. Housing improvements have seemed to lift consumer confidence and spending in the US and have countered fears that consumers would pull back in response to the government’s austerity measures.

To read the full report, visit the Currency Solutions website. Transferring funds out of South Africa or money transfers into South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at assist you in securing the best foreign exchange rates in Cape Town. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.

Tuesday 28 May 2013

Rand under pressure

Trade report 28/05/2013

The rand is again starting the trading session on the back foot and is well above the 9.6000 mark. The currency has been trading at four year lows just shy of R9.70 for the last week. The rand is expected to stay under pressure as economic growth data is due for release at 11:30 and is expected to show that GDP has slowed since last year. The USD-ZAR is expected to trade at 9.55-9.7000 today.

In international news the European Commission has accused Chinese firms of selling solar panels at below cost in Europe and plan to impose duties on China in order to make it harder for them to gain market share in Europe. A survey of EU member states revealed that most EU governments opposed the plan to impose duties on solar panel imports as they are fearful of losing business in China.

To read the full report, visit the Currency Solutions website. Transferring funds out of South Africa/Money transfers into South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at assist you in securing the best foreign exchange rates in South Africa. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.

Monday 27 May 2013

Rand on the defensive

Trade report 20/05/2013

The ZAR was on the defensive in early Monday morning trade, this may be related to the AUD extending its slide. The amalgamation of weaker demand for commodities, combined with the increased chance of more monetary easing has seen the AUD come under considerable pressure. Even though there is a major difference between the South African and Australian economies, the AUD is still used as a barometer for commodity currencies. The USD-ZAR is expected to trade at 9.53 – 9.6500.

Senior UK financial services executives have been forced to personally guarantee that their firms have dealt properly with regulatory concerns by the new banking watchdogs. The Prudential Regulation Authority and the Financial Conduct Authority are using signed confirmations form senior financial executives to hold them accountable if something should go wrong. “If we find a particular problem has not been addressed, the confirmation would make it easier to take enforcement action. That is part of the point,” said FCA director of supervision, Clive Adamson.

To read the full report, visit the Currency Solutions website. Transferring funds out of South Africa/Money transfers into South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at assist you in securing the best foreign exchange rates in South Africa. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.

Friday 24 May 2013

Marcus keeps rates at 5%

“The repo rate (repurchase rate) is the interest rate at which commercial banks can borrow money from the Reserve Bank.” On Thursday a decision was made by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to leave the repo rate unchanged. SARB left the repo rate at 5%. The decision was in line with the opinions of 25 economists polled by Reuters last week. The Bank admitted that for the first time in nearly a year they strongly considered a rate cut to boost economic growth.

SARB also made the decision to lower its 2013 growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.4% and raised concerns about the turbulent labour relations in the mining sector with wage negotiations set to start in the coming weeks.

The Bank also raised concerns over South Africa's very tight electricity supply for winter and the high possibility of rolling blackouts in the months to come. Another concern was the weak global demand and the effect this has on our export market with unemployment already stuck at 25%.

SARB Governor Gill Marcus said after reflecting on these difficulties the monetary policy committee discussed a rate cut extensively, but concluded that it would be “premature” for markets to price a rate cut in now.

Do you need a supplier of foreign exchange in Cape Town? Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.

Thursday 23 May 2013

Why should I use a currency outsourcer?

Many business and private clients don’t know that FSB regulated foreign currency outsourcers exist and use their banks to transfer foreign currency abroad even though it can be very expensive. The core focus of a currency outsourcer or specialist’s business is foreign exchange and we are therefore able to negotiate great exchange rates with authorised dealers and pass these savings onto our clients.

Cost


 

When using the services of a bank, deal size and the frequency of a client’s foreign exchange requirements determine how competitive the exchange rate will be. Currency outsourcers carry out many foreign exchange transactions across a wide variety of currencies and in larger volumes, thus we are offered better exchange rates and lower transmission costs by the authorised dealers we use. We are then able to pass these savings onto our clients, because we do not have the overheads that the banks have.

Currency specialists can usually save you anything from 0.25% up to 2% of the amount being transferred. For example, a client transferring R1000 000 into US dollars was recently quoted 9.75 by their bank and would have received $102,534. We quoted 9.64 and paid $103,734.

Transparency


 

Currency outsourcers operate a straightforward and transparent service whereby we agree and fix the foreign exchange margin for all transfers when a client signs up. There are no additional “hidden” fees or costs. Our clients appreciate this level of transparency, as most banks often change the margin depending on the size of the transfer and may charge additional fees (e.g. preparation of documents, etc.).

Personalized service


 

As outsourcers are not big companies we are able to offer personalised service. Banks employ thousands of people and a single transaction can be handled by multiple persons before it is completed. When using a currency outsourcer a single trader will be responsible for your account. He or she will explain to you the various allowances, assist with paperwork, set up your account and send you deal confirmations.

If you are transferring funds into or out of South Africa; let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.

Tuesday 21 May 2013

Mining sector unrest weakens rand

Trade report 21/05/2013

The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) demand for large wage hikes in the coal and gold industries on Monday helped push the rand to a four year low against the dollar. "The market is nervous after breaking through R9.36/$, and the trend is continuing weaker," a local trader said. Mining investors were rattled after news broke on Sunday that NUM made a submission to the Chamber of Mines for pay rises of up to 60%.

On Monday US congressional investigators accused Apple of exploiting tax loopholes and in doing so avoided paying billions in taxes. A 40-page report on Apple’s international tax structure was released by the US Senate permanent subcommittee ahead of a hearing where the US technology group will be scrutinized. The Senate report stated that Apple’s use of loopholes for international profits allowed it to save US tax on $44bn in the past four years.

To read the full report, visit the Currency Solutions website. Transferring funds out of South Africa/Money transfers into South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at assist you in securing the best foreign exchange rates in South Africa. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.

Monday 20 May 2013

Rand at four year low

Trade report 20/05/2013

The South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB) will be meeting to decide on interest rates later this week. Commodity prices remain on the defensive and gold has lost ground in eight consecutive trading sessions. The combination of falling inflation, waning global growth and a resurgence in the USD all influence the gold price. The rand is at a four year low against the dollar and the USD-ZAR could be heading to levels close to 9.5000 in this trading session, but strong resistance will most likely be encountered around 9.44 which is a trend line resistance level.

Bank of England governor Sir Mervyn King stifled the British Treasury’s excitement over “increasing momentum” in the economy. The Bank Governor warned Chancellor George Osborne that his policy to stimulate the housing market could cause future problems. Sir Mervyn said that Mr Osborne’s Help To Buy scheme was “too close for comfort” to the US mortgage guarantee schemes that caused the financial crisis and should not be allowed to become permanent.

To read the full report, visit the Currency Solutions website. Transferring funds out of South Africa/Money transfers into South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.

Thursday 16 May 2013

Rand remains fragile

Trade report 10/05/2013

The USD- ZAR is expected to trade at 9.25-9.3500 today. The structure of the SA economy lends itself to ZAR vulnerability, because government is running significant budget deficits and use industrial policies that do not boost the productive sectors of the SA economy enough.

Following a request by Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu) the two day illegal strike at Lonmin’s Marikana mines ended and labourers went back to work for the Wednesday night shift. The resumption of work is seen by some as the calm before the storm as Amcu continues its drive to push the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) out of the platinum mines.

In international news Japan’s economy showed solid growth in consumer spending and exports in the last quarter. Government data released on Thursday showed that Japan’s real GDP increased by 0.9% in the three months leading to March. Since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took power in December Japan has started to climb out of recession and he is delivering quick and tangible results.

To read the full report, visit the Currency Solutions website. Transferring funds out of South Africa/Money transfers into South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.

Wednesday 15 May 2013

Rand down on labour tensions

Trade report 15/05/2013

The ZAR suffered its third consecutive day of losses and the currency is expected to remain on the back foot unless the labour disruptions at the Lonmin mine ends. The company's management team informed staff that if disruptions continue there is a possibility of lay-offs. On Tuesday the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu) said the illegal strike at Lonmin's platinum mine will continue until National Union of Mineworkers (NUM's) local office has been shut down.

In international news, for the past four years America’s federal budget deficit has surpassed $1 trillion, but the US government’s annual deficit is now shrinking a lot faster than was expected. The nonpartisan Budget Office released a new report on Tuesday, approximating that the deficit for this fiscal year, which ends on Sept. 30, will fall to about $642 billion, roughly $200 billion lower than the agency estimated three months ago.

To read the full report, visit the Currency Solutions website. Transferring funds out of South Africa/Money transfers into South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.

Tuesday 14 May 2013

Lonmin strike impacts on rand

Trade report 14/05/2013

Lonmin workers have embarked on an illegal strike today. Given the impact of last year’s strikes this could negatively impact the ZAR. The strike is likely to restrict the extent of any ZAR recovery and USD-ZAR is expected to trade at 9.10-9.2000 today.

“All operations are down at Lonmin,”Lisiba Seshoka spokesperson for The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) told reporters. Workers at the South African operations of platinum producer Lonmin have gone on an illegal strike following the killing of Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu) regional leader Mawethu Joseph Steven.

In international news a survey released by Pew Research Center on Monday the confidence of European people in European Union institutions are at an all-time low. The survey results suggest that more citizens than ever before could end up opposing the transfer of more power to European Union institutions.

To read the full report, visit the Currency Solutions website. Transferring funds out of South Africa/Money transfers into South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.

Monday 13 May 2013

Rand weaker against the dollar


Trade report 13/05/2013

With very little domestic data planned to be released today it leaves investors to look toward the release of advanced US retail sales numbers. These numbers will give investors insight into whether consumer demand is slowly starting to return. The USD-ZAR is expected to trade at 9.10-9.2000 today.

News in Africa is that WEF’s chief economist, Jennifer Blanke, made the point that 14 of the bottom 20 countries on the WEF and World Bank’s current competitive ranking are African nations. She went on to say that most of Africa’s economic boom has been because of the continents rich natural resources. The commodity boom would not last forever and the sustainability of the boom is dependent on the competitiveness of African economies.

In international news, on Sunday a senior British minister said he would support a decision for Britain to exit from the European Union (EU) if they were called to vote on the matter. This as Prime Minister David Cameron faces an uprising over Europe from lawmakers in his own party

To read the full report, visit the Currency Solutions website. Transferring funds out of South Africa/Money transfers into South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.

Friday 10 May 2013

Amplats decision a potential market mover

Trade report 10/05/2013

The revised jobs plan from Amplats is a potential market mover to look out for. Depending on what is announced, the news could be the catalyst in another round of protests or could be treated as better than expected if fewer job cuts are announced.

In local news mining and manufacturing production numbers fell unexpectedly in March suggesting that economic growth could be subdued in the first quarter of 2013 adding to support for a second interest rate cut this year.

In international news senior officials fear that the better economic data in recent weeks are not enough to prevent the International Monetary Fund (IMF) from calling on Chancellor George Osborne to loosen his austerity drive. It is expected that the IMF and British

To read the full report, visit the Currency Solutions website. Transferring funds out of South Africa/Money transfers into South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.

Thursday 9 May 2013

ZAR’s supportive environment weakens

Trade report 09/05/2013

Mining production and manufacturing stats due to be released later today are likely to reflect weak domestic and international demand which could strengthen speculation that SA is in the midst of an economic down-turn that could be caracterised by reduced consumer spending and tough employment conditions.

In other local news expectations are rising that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) could cut interest rates later this month for the second time this year due to growing concern over slowing global growth. This follows the European Central banks decision to reduce interest rates to record lows last week as well as the Australian Central Bank cutting rates earlier this week.

In international news Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg together with a group of executives and investors recently created a new nonprofit advocacy group called Fwd.Us. The aim of the organization to push for an overhaul of US immigration laws by endorsing a very conservative view point. Various liberal groups are in uproar and have called on companies to withdraw advertisements from Facebook, but the group’s supports say they were prepared for such a reaction.

To read the full report, visit the Currency Solutions website. Transferring funds out of South Africa/Money transfers into South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.

Wednesday 8 May 2013

Possible rate cuts weaken rand

Trade report 08/05/2013

The ZAR remains on the back foot as investors continued to price in the possibility of an interest rate cut this year. The European Central Bank and central banks in Australia and India have all cut rates and this has fuelled expectations of a similar move by the South African Reserve Bank before the end of the year

Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan said in an interview on Tuesday that in order for Africa’s overall growth to reach the 7% level seen by many other emerging markets more co-operation between the 54 African states are needed.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed above 15,000 for the first time on Tuesday. Good corporate earnings, positive economic reports and support from central banks have worn off concerns about another economic slowdown.

To read the full report, visit the Currency Solutions website. Transferring funds out of South Africa/Money transfers into South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.

Tuesday 7 May 2013

ZAR on back foot

Trade report 01/05/2013

The ZAR is on the back foot this morning with the possibility of further weakness as big commodity currencies like the AUD come under pressure. However the ZAR weakness may not be long lived as the South African Reserve Bank are only expected to cut rates later this year once inflation subsides.

Data released by Statistics South Africa on Monday show the unemployment rate has increased from 24.9% in the fourth quarter of 2012 to 25.2% in the first quarter of 2013. The numbers of unemployed people rose by 100000 to 4.6 million.

According to an international private sector survey the service sector growth in China slowed, recession in the Eurozone is looming and although US employment numbers are up the country’s growth slowed last month.

To read the full report, visit the Currency Solutions website. Transferring funds out of South Africa/Money transfers into South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.

Monday 6 May 2013

On-going support for the rand

Trade report 06/05/2013

The more positive market sentiment and the fact that the South African Reserve Bank will most likely not reduce rates at the next meeting will likely stimulate on-going inflows into SA bonds and give more support for the local currency.

City of Johannesburg‘s waste management unit said on Sunday that Pickitup workers are planning an illegal strike starting Monday. Amanda Nair, Pickitup Managing Director said in a statement that “it is unfortunate that our employees have resorted to an unprotected strike in relation to their grievance”.

The US private sector has helped create nearly 200,000 new jobs a month since January. In April the US private sector created new job opportunities for 176000 people and the public sector created an additional 11000 jobs.

To read the full report, visit the Currency Solutions website. Transferring funds out of South Africa/Money transfers into South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.

Friday 3 May 2013

Tom, Spot and Forward Foreign Exchange Contracts


In order to understand the terms tom rate, spot rate and forward contract we first need to define what these terms are. 


A tom (tomorrow) refers to a foreign exchange transaction when currency delivery is the day after the deal is confirmed. Spot transactions are the most common foreign exchange transactions and refer to foreign exchange bought or sold for delivery two business days after the deal is confirmed. A forward refers to a foreign exchange transaction with a settlement date that is more than 2 business days after the trade date. 



In any foreign exchange contract there are certain variables that need to be discussed.

1)       Two currencies are always involved; the currency that is being bought and the currency being sold.

2)       The amount of currency to be bought or sold.

3)       The rate at which the exchange of currencies will occur.

4)       The date at which the contract matures (forward contract transaction).


A forward contract transaction is the most complicated of the foreign exchange transactions and refers to a financial transaction that will take place in the future. In determining the rate of exchange in a forward contracts there are two important components:


1) The current spot price of the currency pair

2) The interest rates of the two currencies involved or the interest rate differential. 


Forward rates can be calculated from spot rates and interest rates using the formula Spot x (1+domestic interest rate)/(1+foreign interest rate), where the 'Spot' is expressed as a direct rate (i.e. as the number of domestic currency units one unit of the foreign currency can buy).


In other words, if S is the spot rate and F the forward rate, and rf and rd are foreign currency interest rates and domestic currency interest rates respectively, then:



For example if the spot USDZAR rate is 8.9 and the interest rates on ZAR and USD are 8.5% and 3.25% annually respectively, then calculated the 1 month USDZAR forward rate.


Thus, in one month, 8.46 ZAR will be equivalent of 1 USD.

Rand to consolidate at stronger levels

Trade report 01/05/2013

A number of factors should see the ZAR consolidate at stronger levels, ranging from the decision of the European Central Bank to cut interest rates yesterday, the small improvement in commodity prices and the slight weakening in the JPY.

The platinum market is expected to have a "marginal surplus" this year after slipping into a deficit in 2012 for the first time in eight years because of strike action in South Africa. SA is the world’s largest producer of platinum used in jewellery and industrial applications.

Thursday saw European Central Bank (ECB) cut main interest rates. Not all bank officials were positive about the decision and highlighted the constraints to further action. The ECB lowered its main refinancing rate by a quarter percentage point to 0.50 per cent.

To read the full report, visit the Currency Solutions website. Transferring funds out of South Africa/Money transfers into South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.

Thursday 2 May 2013

Rand’s strengthening momentum has disappeared

Trade report 01/05/2013

The ZAR’s strengthening momentum has disappeared as it lost some ground against the USD despite a narrower than expected trade deficit. The reason for the ZAR losing ground is most probably related to commodities being on the defensive as the gold and platinum prices retreated.

The R7.8bn deficit for March 2013 was due to a 2.9% increase in exports from February and a 0.3% decrease in imports. The annual trade deficit for 2012 was R117.675bn compared with R16.885bn in 2011.

On Wednesday the US Federal Reserve (Fed) said that it would continue with its economic stimulus campaign, putting to bed rumours that the Fed was planning to do less. Efforts to spur growth and reduce unemployment are a Federal Reserve priority and for the first time the Fed explicitly mentioned the possibility of doing more in a policy statement.

To read the full report, visit the Currency Solutions website. Transferring funds out of South Africa/Money transfers into South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.