Trade report 011/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.2600 – 10.3800
The ZAR is managing to stay relatively steady this morning after it took a knock on Friday afternoon. US payrolls data came in much stronger than expected, boosting the USD and putting pressure on emerging markets. At 06:25 GMT the Rand was trading around R10.3350/$ and looked to stay within the wide range of 10.2250 and 10.4050 in today’s quieter session.
Local news
The ZAR remains under pressure with recent local data pointing to a rather bleak view around growth trajectory and the wide current account deficit. Retail sales data is due for release this week and is expected to confirm this. On-going mining labour unrest also continues to hamper investor sentiment, and is one of the main contributors to the Rands 22% drop against the greenback so far this year.
International news
The positive US data released last week has spurred on the argument that the FED may introduce QE tapering earlier than the expected March next year. This would add to the pressure on the already vulnerable emerging markets.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 08:00 SA SARB Dep. Gov. Mminele remarks published on SARB website
• US Veterans Day (stock markets open, bond markets closed)
• O/N JP Current account total (JPY)
• O/N JP Trade balance (JPY)
• 17:00 EZ ECB’s Weidmann speaks
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Monday, 11 November 2013
Friday, 8 November 2013
Cautious trading ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls release
Trade report 08/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1800 – 10.3400
In an unexpected move yesterday, the ECB cut interest rates. This and the soft SA mining and manufacturing data released yesterday helped push the ZAR to its lowest level in more than 2 months. The Rand closed at R10.2925/$ last night but steadied this morning as investors cautiously await the key US non-farm payrolls data due out later today.
Local news
Both mining and manufacturing data came in well below consensus estimates. This data helps highlight the negative effect the strike action has on the local industries, but will also more than likely mean the SARB will keep interest rates low for the medium term to promote growth. This leaves the ZAR exposed due to its economic imbalances.
International news
US Initial jobless claims and GDP q/q data released out of the US yesterday came in firmer than expected pointing towards a firming of QE tapering expectations and boosting the USD, however investors are trading cautiously today ahead of the key non-Farm payrolls data due for release later in the day.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 07:00 DE Trade balance (EUR)
• 09:30 GB Visible trade balance (GBP)
• 13:30 US Nonfarm payrolls
• 13:30 US Unemployment rate
• 13:30 US PCE core y/y
• 14:55 US Michigan consumer confidence (preliminary)
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1800 – 10.3400
In an unexpected move yesterday, the ECB cut interest rates. This and the soft SA mining and manufacturing data released yesterday helped push the ZAR to its lowest level in more than 2 months. The Rand closed at R10.2925/$ last night but steadied this morning as investors cautiously await the key US non-farm payrolls data due out later today.
Local news
Both mining and manufacturing data came in well below consensus estimates. This data helps highlight the negative effect the strike action has on the local industries, but will also more than likely mean the SARB will keep interest rates low for the medium term to promote growth. This leaves the ZAR exposed due to its economic imbalances.
International news
US Initial jobless claims and GDP q/q data released out of the US yesterday came in firmer than expected pointing towards a firming of QE tapering expectations and boosting the USD, however investors are trading cautiously today ahead of the key non-Farm payrolls data due for release later in the day.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 07:00 DE Trade balance (EUR)
• 09:30 GB Visible trade balance (GBP)
• 13:30 US Nonfarm payrolls
• 13:30 US Unemployment rate
• 13:30 US PCE core y/y
• 14:55 US Michigan consumer confidence (preliminary)
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Thursday, 7 November 2013
ZAR steady ahead of key data releases
Trade report 07/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1800 – 10.3300
The ZAR has been trading in a narrow range and at 08:43 GMT was at R10.2760/$, very close to its R10.2630 close in New York yesterday evening. It is generally thought that the Rand will remain steady as investors await key data releases scheduled for later today – the US Jobless claims, Q3 GDP and the BoE rate announcement.
Local news
The Rand remains vulnerable and prone to underperformance due to weak structural factors such as a wide current account and budget account deficit. On-going mining strikes and violence are knocking investor confidence, although focus today will be on domestic output data for the mining and manufacturing sectors in September.
International news
With investor confidence in the ZAR on the decline, economists will be watching the key international data due out today. Soft US data will add to the argument for the pushing out of QE tapering expectations and maybe help keep the Rand steady for the moment.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 06:00 SA Net reserves (USD)
• 09:30 SA Switch auction
• 09:30 SA Mining production y/y
• 11:00 DE Industrial production y/y
• 12:00 GB BoE rate announcement
• 12:45 EZ ECB rate announcement
• 13:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 13:30 US GDP q/q annualized (advanced)
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1800 – 10.3300
The ZAR has been trading in a narrow range and at 08:43 GMT was at R10.2760/$, very close to its R10.2630 close in New York yesterday evening. It is generally thought that the Rand will remain steady as investors await key data releases scheduled for later today – the US Jobless claims, Q3 GDP and the BoE rate announcement.
Local news
The Rand remains vulnerable and prone to underperformance due to weak structural factors such as a wide current account and budget account deficit. On-going mining strikes and violence are knocking investor confidence, although focus today will be on domestic output data for the mining and manufacturing sectors in September.
International news
With investor confidence in the ZAR on the decline, economists will be watching the key international data due out today. Soft US data will add to the argument for the pushing out of QE tapering expectations and maybe help keep the Rand steady for the moment.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 06:00 SA Net reserves (USD)
• 09:30 SA Switch auction
• 09:30 SA Mining production y/y
• 11:00 DE Industrial production y/y
• 12:00 GB BoE rate announcement
• 12:45 EZ ECB rate announcement
• 13:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 13:30 US GDP q/q annualized (advanced)
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Wednesday, 6 November 2013
Fed comments help a softening Rand
Trade report 06/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1600 – 10.3300
The Rand dropped significantly against the USD yesterday and closed the day at R10.2460/$. Dovish remarks by two Federal Reserve officials mentioning subdued growth in the US economy, have since helped prop the ZAR up, and this morning at 06:45 GMT the Rand had recovered by 0.4% to R10.2025/$.
Local news
On-going strike action and fears that the mining strike will spread across the platinum industry are knocking investor sentiment in the ZAR. SACCI Business Confidence data for October is also due for release today and it will be interesting to note if it has moved up from September. Last month’s figures had moved up, but were still low compared to last year.
International news
Recent dovish remarks by the Federal Reserve’s Williams and Lacker have added to speculation that the Fed will hold off on QE tapering until at least March of next year. Although, traders will be watching for this week’s US employment data as if it comes in stronger than expected it could put renewed pressure on the Rand.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA SACCI Business Confidence
• 08:55 DE PMI services (final)
• 09:00 EZ PMI services (final)
• 10:00 EZ Retail sales y/y
• 11:00 DE Factory orders y/y
• 12:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 15:00 US Leading indicators
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1600 – 10.3300
The Rand dropped significantly against the USD yesterday and closed the day at R10.2460/$. Dovish remarks by two Federal Reserve officials mentioning subdued growth in the US economy, have since helped prop the ZAR up, and this morning at 06:45 GMT the Rand had recovered by 0.4% to R10.2025/$.
Local news
On-going strike action and fears that the mining strike will spread across the platinum industry are knocking investor sentiment in the ZAR. SACCI Business Confidence data for October is also due for release today and it will be interesting to note if it has moved up from September. Last month’s figures had moved up, but were still low compared to last year.
International news
Recent dovish remarks by the Federal Reserve’s Williams and Lacker have added to speculation that the Fed will hold off on QE tapering until at least March of next year. Although, traders will be watching for this week’s US employment data as if it comes in stronger than expected it could put renewed pressure on the Rand.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA SACCI Business Confidence
• 08:55 DE PMI services (final)
• 09:00 EZ PMI services (final)
• 10:00 EZ Retail sales y/y
• 11:00 DE Factory orders y/y
• 12:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 15:00 US Leading indicators
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Tuesday, 5 November 2013
Rand trading slightly firmer
Trade report 05/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.0700 – 10.2100
The ZAR managed to firm up slightly yesterday after a quiet start to the week as European data released yesterday did not have any real impact in the markets. The Rand was at R10.1465/$ at 08:20 GMT, slightly down from its overnight close, but firmer that it’s R10.2145 low of yesterday.
Local news
It is important to note that despite trading slightly firmer in the past day or so, that the ZAR remains the third worst performing EM currency on the week. Added to South Africa’s twin deficits the renewed bout of strike action is adding to the ZARs woes, as it is knocking investor confidence in the currency. Another concern to investors is the lapse of SA’s investment treaties with some of its EU trading parties as the replacement law does not offer the same protection.
International news
Recent manufacturing data out of some of the major economies tends towards confirming a gradual improvement in the growth trajectory. While this is positive news, it also leaves investors nervous that the Fed may look to start its QE tapering earlier than March next year.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Bond auction
• 08:00 EZ ECB’s Constancio speaks
• 09:30 GB PMI services
• 10:00 EZ PPI y/y
• 13:30 EZ ECB President Draghi speaks
• 14:00 EZ ECB’s Asmussen speaks in Berlin
• 15:00 US ISM non-manufacturing composite
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.0700 – 10.2100
The ZAR managed to firm up slightly yesterday after a quiet start to the week as European data released yesterday did not have any real impact in the markets. The Rand was at R10.1465/$ at 08:20 GMT, slightly down from its overnight close, but firmer that it’s R10.2145 low of yesterday.
Local news
It is important to note that despite trading slightly firmer in the past day or so, that the ZAR remains the third worst performing EM currency on the week. Added to South Africa’s twin deficits the renewed bout of strike action is adding to the ZARs woes, as it is knocking investor confidence in the currency. Another concern to investors is the lapse of SA’s investment treaties with some of its EU trading parties as the replacement law does not offer the same protection.
International news
Recent manufacturing data out of some of the major economies tends towards confirming a gradual improvement in the growth trajectory. While this is positive news, it also leaves investors nervous that the Fed may look to start its QE tapering earlier than March next year.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Bond auction
• 08:00 EZ ECB’s Constancio speaks
• 09:30 GB PMI services
• 10:00 EZ PPI y/y
• 13:30 EZ ECB President Draghi speaks
• 14:00 EZ ECB’s Asmussen speaks in Berlin
• 15:00 US ISM non-manufacturing composite
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Monday, 4 November 2013
Strikes weigh on investor sentiment
Trade report 04/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.0911 – 10.2200
The ZAR finished off last week on the back foot due to a buoyed USD and soft SA data releases. As we start off a new week the Rand continues to struggle as fears of further mining strikes knocks investor confidence. The Rand is currently trading near 8 week lows and at 05:57GMT was R10.1605/$, very close to its close in New York on Friday evening.
Local news
In local news workers from the National Union of Mineworkers have gone on strike over wages at mid-tier producer Northam Platinum. There is a fear of further strikes starting at Anglo American Platinum, Impala Platinum and Lonmin by the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union. This news adds to negative investor sentiment and increases pressure on an already vulnerable Rand.
International news
Fed QE tapering expectations are one of the main topics in the markets at the moment with the general feeling that it won’t begin before March 2013. With this in mind, the week ahead will be a significant one with ECB and BoE policy meetings scheduled as well as numerous Fed officials due to speak and US Q3 GDP data due for release.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:00 EZ PMI Manufacturing (final)
• 09:30 EZ Sentix investor confidence
• 09:30 GB PMI construction
• 11:30 EZ ECB’s Asmussen speaks
• 14:45 US ISM New York
• 15:00 US Factory orders y/y
• 16:20 US Fed’s Powell speaks
• 21:00 US Fed’s Rosengren speaks
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.0911 – 10.2200
The ZAR finished off last week on the back foot due to a buoyed USD and soft SA data releases. As we start off a new week the Rand continues to struggle as fears of further mining strikes knocks investor confidence. The Rand is currently trading near 8 week lows and at 05:57GMT was R10.1605/$, very close to its close in New York on Friday evening.
Local news
In local news workers from the National Union of Mineworkers have gone on strike over wages at mid-tier producer Northam Platinum. There is a fear of further strikes starting at Anglo American Platinum, Impala Platinum and Lonmin by the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union. This news adds to negative investor sentiment and increases pressure on an already vulnerable Rand.
International news
Fed QE tapering expectations are one of the main topics in the markets at the moment with the general feeling that it won’t begin before March 2013. With this in mind, the week ahead will be a significant one with ECB and BoE policy meetings scheduled as well as numerous Fed officials due to speak and US Q3 GDP data due for release.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:00 EZ PMI Manufacturing (final)
• 09:30 EZ Sentix investor confidence
• 09:30 GB PMI construction
• 11:30 EZ ECB’s Asmussen speaks
• 14:45 US ISM New York
• 15:00 US Factory orders y/y
• 16:20 US Fed’s Powell speaks
• 21:00 US Fed’s Rosengren speaks
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Friday, 1 November 2013
Rand on the backfoot after disappointing trade release
Trade report 01/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.9500 – 10.1500
After enjoying a period of relative stability and firm trading the ZAR was trading near a one month low this morning and breached the R10/$ level. The Rand is battling disappointing SA data and a greenback buoyed by upbeat US data released yesterday. The Rand was R10.0400/$ at 08:36 GMT, 0.2% firmer than its close in New York yesterday evening.
Local news
Trade data released yesterday revealed that the deficit narrowed by a smaller margin than the markets were expecting. The cumulative trade deficit for 2013 now stands at R126.37bn, compared to R83.6bn in 2012 meaning the ZAR will most likely be reliant on external funding for a while to come still.
International news
Strong US Chicago PMI data contributed to the good day for the USD. The PMI rose from 55.7 to 65.9 which surprised the markets as they were expecting a reading closer to 55.0. This, combined with the disappointing local data meant the Rand took strain and hit a low of 10.0695 – it’s weakest level since the beginning of October.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:00 SA Kagiso PMI
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 09:30 SA Naamsa vehicle sales y/y
• 18:30 SA Dep. Gov. Mminele keynote speech published on SARB website
• 09:30 GB PMI manufacturing
• 12:58 US Markit PMI manufacturing (final)
• 13:10 US Fed’s Bullard speaks on monetary policy
• 14:00 US ISM manufacturing PMI
• 15:15 US Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.9500 – 10.1500
After enjoying a period of relative stability and firm trading the ZAR was trading near a one month low this morning and breached the R10/$ level. The Rand is battling disappointing SA data and a greenback buoyed by upbeat US data released yesterday. The Rand was R10.0400/$ at 08:36 GMT, 0.2% firmer than its close in New York yesterday evening.
Local news
Trade data released yesterday revealed that the deficit narrowed by a smaller margin than the markets were expecting. The cumulative trade deficit for 2013 now stands at R126.37bn, compared to R83.6bn in 2012 meaning the ZAR will most likely be reliant on external funding for a while to come still.
International news
Strong US Chicago PMI data contributed to the good day for the USD. The PMI rose from 55.7 to 65.9 which surprised the markets as they were expecting a reading closer to 55.0. This, combined with the disappointing local data meant the Rand took strain and hit a low of 10.0695 – it’s weakest level since the beginning of October.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:00 SA Kagiso PMI
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 09:30 SA Naamsa vehicle sales y/y
• 18:30 SA Dep. Gov. Mminele keynote speech published on SARB website
• 09:30 GB PMI manufacturing
• 12:58 US Markit PMI manufacturing (final)
• 13:10 US Fed’s Bullard speaks on monetary policy
• 14:00 US ISM manufacturing PMI
• 15:15 US Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
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