Trade report 20/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1300 – 10.2700
News of Eskoms power emergency has brought the ZAR’s steady recovery to an end, as the local currency dropped to R10.2000/$ after the news broke. This morning the Rand was down to R10.2120 in early trade. The USD is also under pressure as the Fed chief Bernanke comments yesterday fell in line with those of soon-to-be chairwoman Yellen.
Local news
Eskom, which provides 95% of South Africa’s electricity declared a power emergency late yesterday and urged industrial customers to reduce power use. It also warned that there is a chance that rolling black-outs may have to be re-introduced. This news not only dampens investor sentiment but also poses a threat to SA’s overall GDP.
International news
While the ZAR struggles with news of the Eskom power emergency, other EMs continue to recover against a steadily softening USD due to mounting expectation of a doveish stance towards QE tapering. There is much US data still to be released this week as well as Fed minutes which investors will be keenly awaiting as they try to gauge the timing of the taper.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 08:00 SA CPI y/y
• 09:30 GB BoE releases MPC minutes
• 13:30 US Retail sales excluding auto and gas m/m
• 13:30 US CPI y/y
• 15:00 US Fed’s Dudley to speak on economy
• 15:00 US Existing home sales
• 15:00 US Business inventories m/m
• 17:10 US Fed’s Bullard speaks
• 19:00 US Fed releases minutes from October 29-30 FOMC
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Wednesday, 20 November 2013
Tuesday, 19 November 2013
Rand enjoying recovery period
Trade report 19/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1100 – 10.2500
The Rand has continued it’s recovery against the USD after last week’s slide and at 06:37GMT this morning was trading at R10.1450/$, the level it closed at on Monday evening. With the markets having turned towards riskier emerging markets this is particularly evident as 4 out of the top 5 performers over the past week have been the BRL, INR, ZAR and TRY, all characterized as part of the “Fragile 5.”
Local news
The ZAR is enjoying a period of recovery after reaching a low of R10.4600/$ a week ago. Despite this the Rand remains vulnerable due to its large twin deficits and with the SARB likely to leave interest rates low for the meantime, the ZAR will continue to struggle when market sentiment turns away from risky assets.
International news
EM currencies are enjoying a period of less pressure as news of economic reform from China helps boost riskier markets and general market feeling is that of a doveish Fed. Today is likely to be a quieter day as investors await the next round of Fed speakers as well as US data releases and SA’s CPI data release on Wednesday.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R2048 – R950mn; R2030 – R450mn; R214 – R950mn)
• 10:00 SA BER business confidence
• 08:30 EZ ECB’s Praet, EBA’s Enria speak
• 10:00 EZ Construction output wda y/y
• 10:00 EZ ZEW economic sentiment
• 10:00 EZ ZEW economic sentiment
• 19:15 US Fed’s Evans speaks to bankers in Chicago
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1100 – 10.2500
The Rand has continued it’s recovery against the USD after last week’s slide and at 06:37GMT this morning was trading at R10.1450/$, the level it closed at on Monday evening. With the markets having turned towards riskier emerging markets this is particularly evident as 4 out of the top 5 performers over the past week have been the BRL, INR, ZAR and TRY, all characterized as part of the “Fragile 5.”
Local news
The ZAR is enjoying a period of recovery after reaching a low of R10.4600/$ a week ago. Despite this the Rand remains vulnerable due to its large twin deficits and with the SARB likely to leave interest rates low for the meantime, the ZAR will continue to struggle when market sentiment turns away from risky assets.
International news
EM currencies are enjoying a period of less pressure as news of economic reform from China helps boost riskier markets and general market feeling is that of a doveish Fed. Today is likely to be a quieter day as investors await the next round of Fed speakers as well as US data releases and SA’s CPI data release on Wednesday.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R2048 – R950mn; R2030 – R450mn; R214 – R950mn)
• 10:00 SA BER business confidence
• 08:30 EZ ECB’s Praet, EBA’s Enria speak
• 10:00 EZ Construction output wda y/y
• 10:00 EZ ZEW economic sentiment
• 10:00 EZ ZEW economic sentiment
• 19:15 US Fed’s Evans speaks to bankers in Chicago
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Monday, 18 November 2013
Rand off to a steady start for the week
Trade report 18/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1100 – 10.2500
The Rand has managed to remain steady against the USD over the week-end and this morning at 09:00GMT was trading at R10.1600/$, much the same as it’s close in New York on Friday evening. General feeling at the moment is that the market is favouring high yielding emerging market assets which should take the pressure off the Rand for the moment.
Local news
With South Africas trade deficit having been drastically reduced last week, it will be interesting to note what the SARB will announce when it’s rate decision is released on Thursday at its last policy meeting for the year. General feeling is that the interest rate will remain unchanged with the market already having priced in a “no change” stance.
International news
Internationally the week ahead looks to be dominated by US data releases as well as numerous Fed members due to speak. News out of China which is seen as pro-market will be good news to emerging markets as EM currencies look to take back some of their losses over the past two weeks.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 10:00 SA BER consumer confidence
• 09:00 EZ Current account sa (EUR)
• 10:00 EZ Trade balance sa (EUR)
• 14:00 US Net long term TIC flows (USD
• 15:00 US NAHB Housing market index
• 17:15 US Fed’s Dudley speaks
• 18:30 US Fed’s Plosser speaks
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1100 – 10.2500
The Rand has managed to remain steady against the USD over the week-end and this morning at 09:00GMT was trading at R10.1600/$, much the same as it’s close in New York on Friday evening. General feeling at the moment is that the market is favouring high yielding emerging market assets which should take the pressure off the Rand for the moment.
Local news
With South Africas trade deficit having been drastically reduced last week, it will be interesting to note what the SARB will announce when it’s rate decision is released on Thursday at its last policy meeting for the year. General feeling is that the interest rate will remain unchanged with the market already having priced in a “no change” stance.
International news
Internationally the week ahead looks to be dominated by US data releases as well as numerous Fed members due to speak. News out of China which is seen as pro-market will be good news to emerging markets as EM currencies look to take back some of their losses over the past two weeks.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 10:00 SA BER consumer confidence
• 09:00 EZ Current account sa (EUR)
• 10:00 EZ Trade balance sa (EUR)
• 14:00 US Net long term TIC flows (USD
• 15:00 US NAHB Housing market index
• 17:15 US Fed’s Dudley speaks
• 18:30 US Fed’s Plosser speaks
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Friday, 15 November 2013
Rand holds onto recent gains
Trade report 15/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.2100 – 10.3500
The Rand has managed to hold onto its recent gains and this morning was trading at R10.2000/$, up from its local close yesterday of R10.3500/$. Janet Yellen’s dovish comments and the good news that SA has adjusted its trade balance calculations which now shows a trade deficit of R34.6bn from the previous R116.9bn, has helped the ZAR firm up.
Local news
SARS has announced that the SA trade deficit is due to be cut almost in half. The inclusion of trade numbers with SA’s neighbours, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland, has helped boost the trade figures, which although still uncomfortably large, should have a large impact on the current account balance when the Q3 data is released in December.
International news
US data released yesterday had little impact in the markets as the Feds comments about the state of the economy and the timing of QE tapering were the main focus of the day. This was good news for risky emerging market currencies which enjoyed a day of buoyed trading.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 10:00 EZ CPI y/y (final)
• 13:30 US Empire manufacturing
• 13:30 US Import price index
• 14:15 US Industrial production m/m
• 15:00 US Wholesale inventories
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.2100 – 10.3500
The Rand has managed to hold onto its recent gains and this morning was trading at R10.2000/$, up from its local close yesterday of R10.3500/$. Janet Yellen’s dovish comments and the good news that SA has adjusted its trade balance calculations which now shows a trade deficit of R34.6bn from the previous R116.9bn, has helped the ZAR firm up.
Local news
SARS has announced that the SA trade deficit is due to be cut almost in half. The inclusion of trade numbers with SA’s neighbours, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland, has helped boost the trade figures, which although still uncomfortably large, should have a large impact on the current account balance when the Q3 data is released in December.
International news
US data released yesterday had little impact in the markets as the Feds comments about the state of the economy and the timing of QE tapering were the main focus of the day. This was good news for risky emerging market currencies which enjoyed a day of buoyed trading.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 10:00 EZ CPI y/y (final)
• 13:30 US Empire manufacturing
• 13:30 US Import price index
• 14:15 US Industrial production m/m
• 15:00 US Wholesale inventories
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Thursday, 14 November 2013
Fed comments help ZAR firm up
Trade report 14/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.2100 – 10.3500
Janet Yellen’s comments yesterday that the economy and labour market are “performing far short of their potential” and must improve before the Fed can start QE tapering have helped the Rand show some much needed gains after a poor start to the week. The ZAR was trading at R10.3025/$ at 08:55GMT with scope for some modest gains today.
Local news
Progress in wage negotiations have helped the ZAR claw back slightly. News that the unions and mining companies are a step closer to reaching a compromise over wages has helped investor sentiment and in turn helped the struggling Rand recover during what has been a tough week for emerging markets.
International news
The ZAR has been allowed a slight recovery due to the doveishness of the Feds Janet Yellen’s comments, but gains have been only moderate as the broader market does not yet feel convinced about the timing of QE tapering. Should investors see more evidence of this, we would expect to see a much firmer recovery by the ZAR.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Switch auction (Source:R201 – Destination:R186 – R500mn)
• 07:00 DE GDP y/y nsa (preliminary)
• 09:00 EZ ECB publishes Monthly report
• 09:30 GB Retail sales excluding auto fuel y/y
• 10:00 EZ GDP sa y/y (advance)
• 13:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 13:30 US Trade balance (USD)
• 15:00 US Senate confirmation hearing for Fed’s Yellen
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.2100 – 10.3500
Janet Yellen’s comments yesterday that the economy and labour market are “performing far short of their potential” and must improve before the Fed can start QE tapering have helped the Rand show some much needed gains after a poor start to the week. The ZAR was trading at R10.3025/$ at 08:55GMT with scope for some modest gains today.
Local news
Progress in wage negotiations have helped the ZAR claw back slightly. News that the unions and mining companies are a step closer to reaching a compromise over wages has helped investor sentiment and in turn helped the struggling Rand recover during what has been a tough week for emerging markets.
International news
The ZAR has been allowed a slight recovery due to the doveishness of the Feds Janet Yellen’s comments, but gains have been only moderate as the broader market does not yet feel convinced about the timing of QE tapering. Should investors see more evidence of this, we would expect to see a much firmer recovery by the ZAR.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Switch auction (Source:R201 – Destination:R186 – R500mn)
• 07:00 DE GDP y/y nsa (preliminary)
• 09:00 EZ ECB publishes Monthly report
• 09:30 GB Retail sales excluding auto fuel y/y
• 10:00 EZ GDP sa y/y (advance)
• 13:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 13:30 US Trade balance (USD)
• 15:00 US Senate confirmation hearing for Fed’s Yellen
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Wednesday, 13 November 2013
Rand steadies after heavy losses yesterday
Trade report 13/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.2600 – 10.4100
The ZAR has managed to firm up this morning after dropping to an eleven week low yesterday as QE tapering speculation grew. By 06:35 GMT this morning the ZAR has reached R10.3355/$, up 0.3% from its close in New York yesterday evening. The Fed’s Lockhards and Kocherlakota comments came across rather dovishly yesterday evening which helped the ZAR steady against the USD.
Local news
Local Retail sales data is due for release today and is expected to reveal a slowdown from 3% y/y to 2.5% as consumers are struggling with debt and reluctant to take on additional credit. This may reinforce expectations that the SARB will be reluctant to increase interest rates, which leaves the ZAR exposed in the medium term due to its large current account and budget deficits.
International news
It is expected to be a relatively quiet day in the markets with further US data only due for release from tomorrow. Emerging currencies have managed to firm up in overnight trade as the Feds speakers hinted that an early taper would hurt the already slow economic recovery, although negative sentiment out of China has meant that the EMs gains have been limited.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 11:00 SA Retail sales constant y/y
• 09:30 GB ILO unemployment rate (3mths)
• 10:00 EZ Industrial production (wda) y/y
• 10:30 GB BoE releases Inflation Report
• 12:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 13:45 US Fed’s Pianalto speaks
• 19:00 US Monthly budget statement
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.2600 – 10.4100
The ZAR has managed to firm up this morning after dropping to an eleven week low yesterday as QE tapering speculation grew. By 06:35 GMT this morning the ZAR has reached R10.3355/$, up 0.3% from its close in New York yesterday evening. The Fed’s Lockhards and Kocherlakota comments came across rather dovishly yesterday evening which helped the ZAR steady against the USD.
Local news
Local Retail sales data is due for release today and is expected to reveal a slowdown from 3% y/y to 2.5% as consumers are struggling with debt and reluctant to take on additional credit. This may reinforce expectations that the SARB will be reluctant to increase interest rates, which leaves the ZAR exposed in the medium term due to its large current account and budget deficits.
International news
It is expected to be a relatively quiet day in the markets with further US data only due for release from tomorrow. Emerging currencies have managed to firm up in overnight trade as the Feds speakers hinted that an early taper would hurt the already slow economic recovery, although negative sentiment out of China has meant that the EMs gains have been limited.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 11:00 SA Retail sales constant y/y
• 09:30 GB ILO unemployment rate (3mths)
• 10:00 EZ Industrial production (wda) y/y
• 10:30 GB BoE releases Inflation Report
• 12:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 13:45 US Fed’s Pianalto speaks
• 19:00 US Monthly budget statement
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
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Tuesday, 12 November 2013
ZAR retreats as talk of QE tapering increases
Trade report 12/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.3100 – 10.4400
It was a day of light trading volumes yesterday as the US celebrated Veterans Day, but as talk around the Fed introducing QE tapering before March next year increases, the pressure on risky assets including the Rand is growing. The ZAR had dropped to R10.4010/$ at 04:54 this morning, nearly 0.2% down from its close in New York yesterday and near its lowest level in 2 months.
Local news
The ZAR remains as fragile as ever, with its increasing current account budget deficits being a major vulnerable point. With an election year ahead, chances of the govt increasing interest rates are low. This in turn adds to the twin deficit issue, meaning this economic imbalance will most likely be a hindrance to the local currency well into the medium term.
International news
With speeches from two Fed members schedule for later today investors will be watching for any hints around the timing of QE tapering, after employment numbers released on Friday came in stronger than expected. Should the Fed comments be dovish, this may help steady the emerging market currencies currently under pressure.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R2023 – R1bn; R2030 – R400mn; R214 – R950mn)
• 07:00 DE CPI y/y (final)
• 09:00 US Fed’s Fisher speaks on monetary policy
• 09:30 GB PPI output core y/y n.s.a
• 09:30 GB CPI y/y
• 13:30 US Chicago Fed activity index
• 18:00 US Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks on monetary policy
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.3100 – 10.4400
It was a day of light trading volumes yesterday as the US celebrated Veterans Day, but as talk around the Fed introducing QE tapering before March next year increases, the pressure on risky assets including the Rand is growing. The ZAR had dropped to R10.4010/$ at 04:54 this morning, nearly 0.2% down from its close in New York yesterday and near its lowest level in 2 months.
Local news
The ZAR remains as fragile as ever, with its increasing current account budget deficits being a major vulnerable point. With an election year ahead, chances of the govt increasing interest rates are low. This in turn adds to the twin deficit issue, meaning this economic imbalance will most likely be a hindrance to the local currency well into the medium term.
International news
With speeches from two Fed members schedule for later today investors will be watching for any hints around the timing of QE tapering, after employment numbers released on Friday came in stronger than expected. Should the Fed comments be dovish, this may help steady the emerging market currencies currently under pressure.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R2023 – R1bn; R2030 – R400mn; R214 – R950mn)
• 07:00 DE CPI y/y (final)
• 09:00 US Fed’s Fisher speaks on monetary policy
• 09:30 GB PPI output core y/y n.s.a
• 09:30 GB CPI y/y
• 13:30 US Chicago Fed activity index
• 18:00 US Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks on monetary policy
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
Want to know where the markets are? View our Live Currency Rates
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