Trade report 26/09/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.9000 – 10.0500
The ZAR is steady against the USD and was little changed this morning from its overnight close in New York of R9.9775/$. Concern was raised over the US budget and wording on the 2010 health-care law which could represent a risk to the US growth outlook. This put some pressure on the USD yesterday and helped the Rand stay firm.
Local news
Local PPI figures for August are due to be released today and may put pressure on the Rand if they reveal that inflation is building in Africa’s largest economy. Added to this there is a renewed threat of another mining strike which would hurt investor sentiment, as the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union has announced it will strike on Friday to protest job cuts.
International news
The ZAR could also be put on the backfoot should US jobless claims data released later today come in stronger than expected. This would add to increasing speculation that the FED will start its QE tapering at its next meeting which would put pressure on not only the Rand, but all emerging market currencies.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA PPI y/y
• 09:30 SA Switch auction (R201s for R186s)
• 08:30 GB Current account balance (GBP)
• 08:30 GB GDP y/y (final)
• 12:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 12:30 US GDP q/q annualised (third reading)
• 12:30 US Personal consumption (third reading)
• 14:00 US Pending home sales y/y
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
Want to know where the markets are? View our Live Currency Rates
Thursday, 26 September 2013
Wednesday, 25 September 2013
Rand slightly firmer after quiet start to the week
Trade report 25/09/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.8100 – 9.9500
The Rand has had a quiet week so far trading in a narrow range, amid low liquidity due to the local public holiday yesterday. It is trading slightly firmer against the USD this morning at around R9.8520/$, which is 0.2% up from its close in New York on Tuesday evening.
Local news
The ZAR remains one of the most volatile EM currencies having lost 2.9% to the USD on the week. An ABSA capital analyst is quoted as writing ‘We believe that the Rand remains vulnerable over the coming months, mainly because FED tapering has merely been delayed and South Africa’s fundamental landscape is likely to have deteriorated further by the time the FED actually starts tapering.’
International news
US economic data due to be released this week, including new home sales and durable goods orders, will be closely watched by the markets. Very positive data may be detrimental to the Rand as it will indicate a strengthening US economy and raise expectations that the FED will start QE tapering.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 07:00 SA Leading Indicator
• 09:30 SA Bond auction
• 09:30 SA Eskom bond auction (R200mn)
• 10:00 SA BER consumer confidence
• 11:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 12:30 US Durable goods orders
• 14:00 US New home sales
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
Want to know where the markets are? View our Live Currency Rates
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.8100 – 9.9500
The Rand has had a quiet week so far trading in a narrow range, amid low liquidity due to the local public holiday yesterday. It is trading slightly firmer against the USD this morning at around R9.8520/$, which is 0.2% up from its close in New York on Tuesday evening.
Local news
The ZAR remains one of the most volatile EM currencies having lost 2.9% to the USD on the week. An ABSA capital analyst is quoted as writing ‘We believe that the Rand remains vulnerable over the coming months, mainly because FED tapering has merely been delayed and South Africa’s fundamental landscape is likely to have deteriorated further by the time the FED actually starts tapering.’
International news
US economic data due to be released this week, including new home sales and durable goods orders, will be closely watched by the markets. Very positive data may be detrimental to the Rand as it will indicate a strengthening US economy and raise expectations that the FED will start QE tapering.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 07:00 SA Leading Indicator
• 09:30 SA Bond auction
• 09:30 SA Eskom bond auction (R200mn)
• 10:00 SA BER consumer confidence
• 11:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 12:30 US Durable goods orders
• 14:00 US New home sales
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
Want to know where the markets are? View our Live Currency Rates
Monday, 23 September 2013
Rand firms after heavy Friday losses
Trade report 23/09/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7900 – 9.9400
Encouraging US jobless claims and US existing home sales data released on Friday helped the USD to rebound 3.1% after initial losses post the FOMC announcement last Wednesday evening. After incurring some heavy losses on Friday mainly due to this positive US data the ZAR has firmed against the USD in morning trade today and is trading around R9.84/$.
Local news
The Rand is currently one of the worst performing EM worldwide partly due to struggling negative sentiment created by the on-going local strike action. THE SARB also announced last week that it is maintaining the current low repo rate at 5% and while this is good news to consumers these low interest rates do not provide any buffer to the strength of the Rand.
International news
A recent strong factory survey from China has lifted commodity currencies that rely on exports to that country. This has helped the ZAR strengthen slightly this morning, although the market will now be looking to speculate on when the FOMC will start QE tapering. This will have investors paying keen interest to the FED member’s speeches that are scheduled for this week.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 12:30 US Chicago Fed activity index
• 12:58 US Markit PMI manufacturing
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
Want to know where the markets are? View our Live Currency Rates
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7900 – 9.9400
Encouraging US jobless claims and US existing home sales data released on Friday helped the USD to rebound 3.1% after initial losses post the FOMC announcement last Wednesday evening. After incurring some heavy losses on Friday mainly due to this positive US data the ZAR has firmed against the USD in morning trade today and is trading around R9.84/$.
Local news
The Rand is currently one of the worst performing EM worldwide partly due to struggling negative sentiment created by the on-going local strike action. THE SARB also announced last week that it is maintaining the current low repo rate at 5% and while this is good news to consumers these low interest rates do not provide any buffer to the strength of the Rand.
International news
A recent strong factory survey from China has lifted commodity currencies that rely on exports to that country. This has helped the ZAR strengthen slightly this morning, although the market will now be looking to speculate on when the FOMC will start QE tapering. This will have investors paying keen interest to the FED member’s speeches that are scheduled for this week.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 12:30 US Chicago Fed activity index
• 12:58 US Markit PMI manufacturing
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
Want to know where the markets are? View our Live Currency Rates
Friday, 20 September 2013
Rand softens as markets settle
Trade report 20/09/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.6200 – 9.7800
The ZAR has pulled back slightly against the USD after the initial over-reaction to the FEDs surprise announcement on Wednesday that it was maintaining QE at the current levels for the meantime. At 08:47 this morning the ZAR was trading at 9.7010 to the USD, slightly softer than its close in New York on Thursday evening.
Local news
The good news for consumers is that the SARB has kept interest rates unchanged as was predicted. This is not necessarily good for the strength of the Rand however, as this loose monetary policy leaves the ZAR more exposed to external fluctuations in sentiment than its EM peers that have already tightened their monetary policies.
International news
The recent FOMC meeting is barely over and talk has already started about the next scheduled meeting in December and the decision over QE. Reserve Bank Governor Gill Marcus has cautioned that volatility linked to uncertainty around the Feds eventual tapering will keep emerging market currencies such as the Rand under pressure.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB Auction
• 08:30 GB Public sector net borrowing
• 16:30 US Feds George speaks
• 16:55 US Feds Bullard speaks
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
Want to know where the markets are? View our Live Currency Rates
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.6200 – 9.7800
The ZAR has pulled back slightly against the USD after the initial over-reaction to the FEDs surprise announcement on Wednesday that it was maintaining QE at the current levels for the meantime. At 08:47 this morning the ZAR was trading at 9.7010 to the USD, slightly softer than its close in New York on Thursday evening.
Local news
The good news for consumers is that the SARB has kept interest rates unchanged as was predicted. This is not necessarily good for the strength of the Rand however, as this loose monetary policy leaves the ZAR more exposed to external fluctuations in sentiment than its EM peers that have already tightened their monetary policies.
International news
The recent FOMC meeting is barely over and talk has already started about the next scheduled meeting in December and the decision over QE. Reserve Bank Governor Gill Marcus has cautioned that volatility linked to uncertainty around the Feds eventual tapering will keep emerging market currencies such as the Rand under pressure.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB Auction
• 08:30 GB Public sector net borrowing
• 16:30 US Feds George speaks
• 16:55 US Feds Bullard speaks
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
Want to know where the markets are? View our Live Currency Rates
Thursday, 19 September 2013
Rand surges on FED announcement
Trade report 19/09/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.4700 – 9.6500
The Rand has enjoyed near four month highs against the USD after the announcement of the FEDs surprise decision to maintain its asset-buying purchases at the current levels. The ZAR gained over 2% overnight, trading at 9.5660 to the dollar at 8.30 this morning. Economists were confident the FED would begin QE tapering and the announcement to the contrary has shocked markets wordwide.
Local news
The strengthening of the Rand over the last week has helped reduce losses to the USD from 19% a few weeks ago to 13%, which will definitely help ease policymakers concerns over rising imported price pressures. The SARB will also announce its interest rate decision today. Economists are fairly confident interest rates will remain unchanged for the time being despite inflation data exceeding the 3 – 6% target range.
International news
Emerging markets across the board have been buoyed by the FED’s decision to maintain QE at the current levels. Combined with the fact that Chinese growth sentiment has stabilised, EMs are expected to enjoy a period of accelerated growth at least for the short-term.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 04:00 SA TransUnion consumer credit index
• 13:00 SA SARB rate announcement
• 08:30 GB Retail sales excluding auto fuel y/y
• 12:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 12:30 US Current account balance (USD)
• 14:00 US Philadelphia Fed index
• 14:00 US Existing home sales
• 14:00 US Leading indicators
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
Want to know where the markets are? View our Live Currency Rates
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.4700 – 9.6500
The Rand has enjoyed near four month highs against the USD after the announcement of the FEDs surprise decision to maintain its asset-buying purchases at the current levels. The ZAR gained over 2% overnight, trading at 9.5660 to the dollar at 8.30 this morning. Economists were confident the FED would begin QE tapering and the announcement to the contrary has shocked markets wordwide.
Local news
The strengthening of the Rand over the last week has helped reduce losses to the USD from 19% a few weeks ago to 13%, which will definitely help ease policymakers concerns over rising imported price pressures. The SARB will also announce its interest rate decision today. Economists are fairly confident interest rates will remain unchanged for the time being despite inflation data exceeding the 3 – 6% target range.
International news
Emerging markets across the board have been buoyed by the FED’s decision to maintain QE at the current levels. Combined with the fact that Chinese growth sentiment has stabilised, EMs are expected to enjoy a period of accelerated growth at least for the short-term.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 04:00 SA TransUnion consumer credit index
• 13:00 SA SARB rate announcement
• 08:30 GB Retail sales excluding auto fuel y/y
• 12:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 12:30 US Current account balance (USD)
• 14:00 US Philadelphia Fed index
• 14:00 US Existing home sales
• 14:00 US Leading indicators
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
Want to know where the markets are? View our Live Currency Rates
Wednesday, 18 September 2013
Fed Meeting today, Rand holding steady
Trade report 18/09/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7000 – 9.8800
The Rand remained steady against the USD yesterday. This morning the local currency was trading at around R9.8045/$ although traders expect volatility to pick up ahead of the much anticipated FOMC news conference later on today. The Fed can mechanically afford to introduce QE tapering but economists believe the degree of tapering will be modest.
Local news
The most immediate threat to the ZAR is the outcome of the FOMC meeting which will be revealed later today. Domestic inflation data is due out today with economists predicting inflation to have risen slightly out of the 3-6% desired target. Despite this softer data it is thought to be unlikely that the SARB will raise interest rates at its next meeting tomorrow.
International news
It is interesting to note that the market has not been overly volatile in the few days build up to the FOMC meeting. The ZAR has been trading in the predicted range and EM currencies have generally remained steady. This is a good indication that despite all the worry caused by the prospect of QE tapering, investor risk appetite is still prevalent.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 08:00 SA CPI y/y
• 11:00 SA Retail sales constant y/y
• 08:30 GB BoE releases MPC minutes
• 12:30 US Housing starts
• 12:30 US Building permits
• 18:00 US FOMC decision
• 18:00 US Fed releases summary of economic projections
• 18:30 US Fed’s Bernanke holds press conference
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
Want to know where the markets are? View our Live Currency Rates
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7000 – 9.8800
The Rand remained steady against the USD yesterday. This morning the local currency was trading at around R9.8045/$ although traders expect volatility to pick up ahead of the much anticipated FOMC news conference later on today. The Fed can mechanically afford to introduce QE tapering but economists believe the degree of tapering will be modest.
Local news
The most immediate threat to the ZAR is the outcome of the FOMC meeting which will be revealed later today. Domestic inflation data is due out today with economists predicting inflation to have risen slightly out of the 3-6% desired target. Despite this softer data it is thought to be unlikely that the SARB will raise interest rates at its next meeting tomorrow.
International news
It is interesting to note that the market has not been overly volatile in the few days build up to the FOMC meeting. The ZAR has been trading in the predicted range and EM currencies have generally remained steady. This is a good indication that despite all the worry caused by the prospect of QE tapering, investor risk appetite is still prevalent.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 08:00 SA CPI y/y
• 11:00 SA Retail sales constant y/y
• 08:30 GB BoE releases MPC minutes
• 12:30 US Housing starts
• 12:30 US Building permits
• 18:00 US FOMC decision
• 18:00 US Fed releases summary of economic projections
• 18:30 US Fed’s Bernanke holds press conference
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
Want to know where the markets are? View our Live Currency Rates
Tuesday, 17 September 2013
Rand steady ahead of FOMC meeting
Trade report 17/09/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7500 – 9.9200
The Rand gained nearly 1.2% against the USD in trading on Monday, and this morning slipped only 0.3% to 9.8310 to the USD. European data due to be released today shouldn’t hold any significant value, so traders are confident of a narrow range of trading for the day, ahead of the much anticipated FOMC meeting scheduled for tomorrow.
Local news
Investors appear to have been de-sensitised to the local gloom of on-going strike action as international news takes priority. The uncertainty over the FOMC meeting this week has allowed the Rand to see surprising gains. SA retail sales and CPI data is due out this week, but will unlikely have much impact on the ZAR as investors focus on whether or not QE tapering will be implemented.
International news
Emerging markets worldwide have benefited from the FEDs monthly bond purchasing programme which the central bank may start scaling back as the US shows signs of economic recovery. Despite this, EM currencies have enjoyed a period of significant gains, although tomorrow may see the start of renewed volatility in the markets as investors react to the outcome of the FOMC meeting.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Bond auction
• 09:30 SA Non-farm payrolls y/y
• 08:30 GB CPI y/y
• 12:30 US CPI y/y
• 14:00 US NAHB Housing market index
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
Want to know where the markets are? View our Live Currency Rates
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7500 – 9.9200
The Rand gained nearly 1.2% against the USD in trading on Monday, and this morning slipped only 0.3% to 9.8310 to the USD. European data due to be released today shouldn’t hold any significant value, so traders are confident of a narrow range of trading for the day, ahead of the much anticipated FOMC meeting scheduled for tomorrow.
Local news
Investors appear to have been de-sensitised to the local gloom of on-going strike action as international news takes priority. The uncertainty over the FOMC meeting this week has allowed the Rand to see surprising gains. SA retail sales and CPI data is due out this week, but will unlikely have much impact on the ZAR as investors focus on whether or not QE tapering will be implemented.
International news
Emerging markets worldwide have benefited from the FEDs monthly bond purchasing programme which the central bank may start scaling back as the US shows signs of economic recovery. Despite this, EM currencies have enjoyed a period of significant gains, although tomorrow may see the start of renewed volatility in the markets as investors react to the outcome of the FOMC meeting.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Bond auction
• 09:30 SA Non-farm payrolls y/y
• 08:30 GB CPI y/y
• 12:30 US CPI y/y
• 14:00 US NAHB Housing market index
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
Want to know where the markets are? View our Live Currency Rates
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)