Friday 30 August 2013
Emerging Markets on the backfoot
Trade report 30/08/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.2700 – 10.4400
The ZAR managed to hold relatively steady yesterday against the USD closing at 10.630. News that the feared Western military strike against Syria was not imminent, after the UK announced it would not participate in a joint strike, slowed the selling of EM stocks and provided some short term relief to the ZAR.
Local news
Local strike action looks set to continue well into next week which will keep investors at bay. The government has announced it will not step in to help break the wage negotiation breakdown in the gold-industry. This combined with the possibility of QE tapering in the near future means that the ZAR is still seen as one of the riskier EM currencies.
International news
Talk of QE tapering by the Fed in the coming months is still on the increase. This has had other EMs tightening their monetary policies, unlike the SARB which has been reluctant to increase interest rates. And with the threat of military action in Syria still very possible, EM currencies are likely to stay on the backfoot going into next week.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS:
• 06:00 SA M3 money supply y/y
• 06:00 SA Private Sector credit y/y
• 12:00 SA South African budget
• 12:00 SA Trade Balance
• 12:30 US PCE core y/y
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Thursday 29 August 2013
Rand volatile over Syrian saga
Trade report 29/08/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.2400 – 10.4000
Yesterday was a quieter day on the markets with the ZAR rallying slightly and closing around 10.40 to the dollar after it’s drop to 10.51 earlier in the day. No-one is quite sure what to expect from the developing Syrian saga and the leaves all EM’s on the backfoot in a volatile market.
Local news
The ZAR continues to battle negative sentiment with investors as strike season locally is in full swing. Strikes in the automobile, construction and transport sectors continue, and now the petrol station and car dealership workers are also set to start striking from Monday. The SA National Union of mineworkers has not reached an agreement over wages with gold producers, increasing the likelihood of a miners walkout as well.
International news
The threat of Western military action in Syria has increased which has all EM’s under pressure as investors are jittery about instability in the area. This conflict in the Middle East dominates risk sentiment for the moment. Also to note is that US data being released today over jobless claims and GDP will indicate whether talks over QE tapering increase or not.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS:
• 7am: SA earnings (IMP, HYP, MTA), Europe earnings (Carrefour, WPP, L’Oreal, etc)
• 11.30am: SA July PPI (+0.5% m/m)
• 2.30pm: US initial jobless (332k), cont claims (2.988m), Q2 2nd read (+2.2% annlsd – revised from 1.7%)
Foreign exchange South Africa– Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.2400 – 10.4000
Yesterday was a quieter day on the markets with the ZAR rallying slightly and closing around 10.40 to the dollar after it’s drop to 10.51 earlier in the day. No-one is quite sure what to expect from the developing Syrian saga and the leaves all EM’s on the backfoot in a volatile market.
Local news
The ZAR continues to battle negative sentiment with investors as strike season locally is in full swing. Strikes in the automobile, construction and transport sectors continue, and now the petrol station and car dealership workers are also set to start striking from Monday. The SA National Union of mineworkers has not reached an agreement over wages with gold producers, increasing the likelihood of a miners walkout as well.
International news
The threat of Western military action in Syria has increased which has all EM’s under pressure as investors are jittery about instability in the area. This conflict in the Middle East dominates risk sentiment for the moment. Also to note is that US data being released today over jobless claims and GDP will indicate whether talks over QE tapering increase or not.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS:
• 7am: SA earnings (IMP, HYP, MTA), Europe earnings (Carrefour, WPP, L’Oreal, etc)
• 11.30am: SA July PPI (+0.5% m/m)
• 2.30pm: US initial jobless (332k), cont claims (2.988m), Q2 2nd read (+2.2% annlsd – revised from 1.7%)
Foreign exchange South Africa– Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
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Monday 26 August 2013
Rand looking for direction
Trade report 26/08/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1900 – 10.3500
The Rand strengthened slightly against the dollar on Monday as the USD comeback was slowed by poor US new home sales data released. This should help the ZAR for the moment, but the currency could be hit by looming strikes during the weeks ahead.
Local news
Since Brazil announced a $60bn currency intervention program on Friday the EM currencies have rallied. An increase in South African interest rates would certainly help the ZAR internationally, but analysts do not expect the Reserve Bank will follow its EM peers just yet. Combined with the on-going strikes and now the construction and transport sectors also threatening to down tools, investor confidence in the Rand remains low and it remains one of the worst performing EMs.
International news
Markets will be keeping a close eye on any data relating to the next FOMC meeting being held in September, as talk increases over the Feds quantitative easing tapering activities. Investors in the meantime are likely to maintain a cautious outlook on the ZAR as well as all emerging markets.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS:
7am: SA earnings (SUI, ADH
2.30pm: US July Durables (-4% m/m)
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1900 – 10.3500
The Rand strengthened slightly against the dollar on Monday as the USD comeback was slowed by poor US new home sales data released. This should help the ZAR for the moment, but the currency could be hit by looming strikes during the weeks ahead.
Local news
Since Brazil announced a $60bn currency intervention program on Friday the EM currencies have rallied. An increase in South African interest rates would certainly help the ZAR internationally, but analysts do not expect the Reserve Bank will follow its EM peers just yet. Combined with the on-going strikes and now the construction and transport sectors also threatening to down tools, investor confidence in the Rand remains low and it remains one of the worst performing EMs.
International news
Markets will be keeping a close eye on any data relating to the next FOMC meeting being held in September, as talk increases over the Feds quantitative easing tapering activities. Investors in the meantime are likely to maintain a cautious outlook on the ZAR as well as all emerging markets.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS:
7am: SA earnings (SUI, ADH
2.30pm: US July Durables (-4% m/m)
Foreign exchange South Africa– Let one of our
professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about
how we can help you Contact Us
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are? View our Live Currency Rates.
Friday 23 August 2013
Rand steadies after 4 year low
Trade report 23/08/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.10 – 10.30
After a tough week where the ZAR hit a new four-year low the Rand managed to hold steady against the USD on Friday. This is due mainly due to data released this week that points to a stabilising of the Chinese economy. But on-going domestic labour unrest continues to discourage investors.
Local news
The ZAR has struggled this week with the threat of gold manufacturing coming to a halt as miners wage talks fail, as well as an on-going strike in the auto sector, responsible for about 6% of the country’s GDP. There is talk of a 50bp interest rate hike by November which would be tough on consumers, but also help the market feel less pessimistic on the ZAR. The concern is that these rate hikes would not be enough to sustain a ZAR comeback.
International news
EM reserves have dropped significantly since early May. Despite their central banks attempts to strengthen their currencies, the fears of Fed tapering QE in the upcoming months, has investors shying away, which in turn causes the ZAR to under-perform.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS:
7am: SA earnings (DRD, HYP)
10.30am: UK Q2 GDP q/q 2nd read (unch at +0.6%)
4pm: US July New Home Sales
Foreign exchange South Africa– Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.10 – 10.30
After a tough week where the ZAR hit a new four-year low the Rand managed to hold steady against the USD on Friday. This is due mainly due to data released this week that points to a stabilising of the Chinese economy. But on-going domestic labour unrest continues to discourage investors.
Local news
The ZAR has struggled this week with the threat of gold manufacturing coming to a halt as miners wage talks fail, as well as an on-going strike in the auto sector, responsible for about 6% of the country’s GDP. There is talk of a 50bp interest rate hike by November which would be tough on consumers, but also help the market feel less pessimistic on the ZAR. The concern is that these rate hikes would not be enough to sustain a ZAR comeback.
International news
EM reserves have dropped significantly since early May. Despite their central banks attempts to strengthen their currencies, the fears of Fed tapering QE in the upcoming months, has investors shying away, which in turn causes the ZAR to under-perform.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS:
7am: SA earnings (DRD, HYP)
10.30am: UK Q2 GDP q/q 2nd read (unch at +0.6%)
4pm: US July New Home Sales
Foreign exchange South Africa– Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.
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Thursday 22 August 2013
Rand faulters on FED tapering talks and local strikes
Trade report 22/08/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.30-10.40
The Rand has blown out overnight, on not only international data but also from the continued industrial strikes which seem imminent. The Rand is running at a current account deficit and with both international news and local strife means the Rand will be vulnerable to further weakness.
Local news
The main local news is with regards to NUM (National Union of Mineworkers) stating it will be balloting its members to see if they will be going on strike. If the strikes go ahead it will have severe impact on the already struggling gold miners but will cause further negative sentiment amongst the international investors over SA ability to manage its labour force as currently 30 000 automotive workers are currently on strike.
International news
From the minutes of the FOMC, although not clearly stated it seems that FED tapering will likely occur in the next couple of months. This will leave EM currencies like the Rand at risk as investors sell off Rand investments and invest in safe haven currencies such as the USD.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS:
• 7am: SA earnings (TRU, GFI)
• 9am: France Aug PMI (50.2)
• 9.30am: Germany Aug PMI (51.1)
• 2.30pm: US initial jobless (330k), cont claims (2.96m)
• 3pm: US June House Price Index
• 4pm: US July Lead Indicator (+0.5% m/m)
Foreign exchange South Africa– Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.
Want to know where the markets are? View our Live Currency Rates.
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.30-10.40
The Rand has blown out overnight, on not only international data but also from the continued industrial strikes which seem imminent. The Rand is running at a current account deficit and with both international news and local strife means the Rand will be vulnerable to further weakness.
Local news
The main local news is with regards to NUM (National Union of Mineworkers) stating it will be balloting its members to see if they will be going on strike. If the strikes go ahead it will have severe impact on the already struggling gold miners but will cause further negative sentiment amongst the international investors over SA ability to manage its labour force as currently 30 000 automotive workers are currently on strike.
International news
From the minutes of the FOMC, although not clearly stated it seems that FED tapering will likely occur in the next couple of months. This will leave EM currencies like the Rand at risk as investors sell off Rand investments and invest in safe haven currencies such as the USD.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS:
• 7am: SA earnings (TRU, GFI)
• 9am: France Aug PMI (50.2)
• 9.30am: Germany Aug PMI (51.1)
• 2.30pm: US initial jobless (330k), cont claims (2.96m)
• 3pm: US June House Price Index
• 4pm: US July Lead Indicator (+0.5% m/m)
Foreign exchange South Africa– Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.
Want to know where the markets are? View our Live Currency Rates.
Tuesday 20 August 2013
Strikes put the Rand on the back foot
Trade report 20/08/2013
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.10-10.30
The Rand has experienced a renewed bout of
negative investor sentiment even though there has been been no significant data
releases or events from an International perspective which should have caused
the volatility. Continued labour issues has again put the Rand under pressure.
Local news
The main local news has not been of data releases but rather the
renewed threats of strike action in multiple industrial sections such as mining
and automotive sector. With the latter having already threatened to down tools,
the impact of the automotive industry going on strike would have severe
consequences not only for the reputation of the SA automotive industry but
could cause lost production and revenue of up to R700million a day.
International news
There has been speculation that the US could increase their interest
rates, the effect of the US raising their interest rates does not seem like a
significant event for the Rand. Unfortunately it could have a serious impact as
it means that the differential in the carry over trade would decrease meaning
more investors would pull money from EM currencies and put the funds back into
safe haven assets such as the USD or EUR. This could cause the Rand to lose
even further ground.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS:
- 7am: SA earnings (BIL, SHP, SPG, BLU, SAC), Europe earnings (Glencore Xstrata)
- 2.30pm: US July Chicago Fed Activity (-0.10)
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Monday 12 August 2013
Rand holds its ground
Trade report 12/08/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.80
– 9.90
The Rand has started the new week on a
stronger bias as it has held its ground after last week’s recovery. The recovery
was spurred by positive Chinese data. This has meant that investor sentiment is
slightly more upbeat.
Local news
Although there has been some positive news coming from outside our
borders the Rand is still not out of the woods. The reason is that as an
economy the Rand is still at risk from a structural perspective. The South
African economy still has twin deficits, labour issues, productivity and
possible electricity supply problems. South Africa will need to manage these
issues before we will see a strong recovery in the Rand.
International news
Apart from the Chinese data which surprised on the upside we are
awaiting data from the Eurozone and the UK, which if also comes through on the
upside then could mean the Rand may strengthen.I f it manages a sustained level
below the 9.775 which is a resistance level, it could possibly open up to lower
USD/ZAR levels. Investors are still keeping focus on any FED announcement
regarding the easing of QE
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS:
7am+: SA earnings (GRF, RBP)
Foreign exchange South Africa– Let one of our professional
consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can
help you Contact Us.
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Tuesday 6 August 2013
The Rand sits in a tight range
Trade report 06/08/2013
Local news
International news
12pm: Germany June Factory Orders (+1% m/m)
1pm+: Molson Coors (140c)
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.75
– 9.90
The Rand has become more range bound
against the USD. An expected range of 9.80 – 9.90. A breakout in any direction
to cause further movement. The Rand breached the 10 mark last week but the
selling could not be sustained, which has placed a strengthening bias on the
Rand.
The Rand has lost some of its shine as a carry-over trade
destination, as other high yielding currencies having outperformed the Rand.
The Rand will need to sustain a break below the technical resistance level of
9.78 for further appreciation to occur. With important local data being
released on Thursday, we should be able to find some direction depending on the
news.
The RBA cut rates to a record low of 2.5%, this caused the market to
be slightly more risk-positive, this in turn would have assisted the higher
yielding emerging market currencies such as the Rand. The Eurozone released
data that was all better than expected, this is in line as the ECB having
recently been releasing less negative
view in the policy meetings.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS:
7am+: SA earnings (NED, RES, MRF, TRE), Europe
earnings (Merck, Munich Re, etc)
10.30am: UK June Ind Prod (+0.7% m/m) 12pm: Germany June Factory Orders (+1% m/m)
1pm+: Molson Coors (140c)
Foreign exchange South Africa– Let one of our professional
consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can
help you Contact Us.
Want to know where the markets are? View our Live Currency Rates.
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