Trade report 23/08/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.10 – 10.30
After a tough week where the ZAR hit a new four-year low the Rand managed to hold steady against the USD on Friday. This is due mainly due to data released this week that points to a stabilising of the Chinese economy. But on-going domestic labour unrest continues to discourage investors.
Local news
The ZAR has struggled this week with the threat of gold manufacturing coming to a halt as miners wage talks fail, as well as an on-going strike in the auto sector, responsible for about 6% of the country’s GDP. There is talk of a 50bp interest rate hike by November which would be tough on consumers, but also help the market feel less pessimistic on the ZAR. The concern is that these rate hikes would not be enough to sustain a ZAR comeback.
International news
EM reserves have dropped significantly since early May. Despite their central banks attempts to strengthen their currencies, the fears of Fed tapering QE in the upcoming months, has investors shying away, which in turn causes the ZAR to under-perform.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS:
7am: SA earnings (DRD, HYP)
10.30am: UK Q2 GDP q/q 2nd read (unch at +0.6%)
4pm: US July New Home Sales
Foreign exchange South Africa– Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us.
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