Trade report 28/02/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.7500 – 10.9000
The ZAR strengthened yesterday as the budget speech was more heavily absorbed by economists and described as “mainly credit positive”. The ZAR was trading at R10.7250/USD at 06:29GMT this morning, down 0.3% from yesterdays close in New York. The local currency may dip today should trade data disappoint, but losses should not be significant.
Local news
Ratings agencies have commented on the budget speech by Gordhan Pravin this week, and the general feeling is a positive one which has helped the ZAR firm up this week along with a generally weaker USD. Fitch noted that the government is trying to stabilise debt ratios, while supporting the economy, but that the targets identified will be challenging. Moodys comments were more upbeat and it seems the threat of another ratings downgrade have been minimised for the moment.
International news
Data due out today looks set to help the ZAR maintain its recent gains unless there are surprises out of the US releases. The Euro has strengthened against its major peers with upbeat news over inflation, which coupled with the good unemployment data released this week, has helped the EUR reach its best level versus the USD so far this year.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 06:00 SA M3 money supply y/y
• 06:00 SA Private sector credit y/y
• 12:00 SA Government budget balance (ZAR)
• 12:00 SA Trade balance
• 10:00 EZ CPI estimates y/y
• 13:30 US GDP q/q annualized (second reading)
• 14:45 US Chicago PMI
• 14:55 US Michigan consumer confidence
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Friday, 28 February 2014
Thursday, 27 February 2014
Rand dips as emerging markets feel renewed pressure
Trade report 27/02/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.7500 – 10.9000
The ZAR has been trading steadily this week and managed to firm up nicely, but slipped yesterday after Gordhan Pravin’s budget speech and renewed international pressure on emerging market currencies. The ZAR dropped 0.8% yesterday and was trading at R10.8150/USD at 15:35GMT yesterday afternoon.
Local news
Focus yesterday was mainly on the budget speech which was encouraging in the fact that despite forecasted economic growth being trimmed to 2.7%, the forecasted budget deficit has been revised lower for the entire FY13-15 period and the govt. has managed to avoid higher income taxes which is the best news taxpayers could hope for. The lower growth prediction was expected according to economists so the main reason for the ZAR’s slip yesterday was more due to international sentiment.
International news
EM currencies felt the pressure yesterday after the news that Russian armed forces were put on alert by President Putin, and although Russia stated that the action was “unrelated to events in the Ukraine", it has raised tensions in the area. Despite this the EUR has managed to strengthen against the GBP after positive unemployment data was released earlier out of Germany.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA PPI y/y
• 08:55 DE Unemployment rate sa
• 13:00 DE CPI y/y (preliminary)
• 13:00 EZ ECB’s Weidmann speaks
• 13:30 US Durable goods orders m/m
• 13:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 15:00 US Fed Chair Yellen testifies to the Senate
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.7500 – 10.9000
The ZAR has been trading steadily this week and managed to firm up nicely, but slipped yesterday after Gordhan Pravin’s budget speech and renewed international pressure on emerging market currencies. The ZAR dropped 0.8% yesterday and was trading at R10.8150/USD at 15:35GMT yesterday afternoon.
Local news
Focus yesterday was mainly on the budget speech which was encouraging in the fact that despite forecasted economic growth being trimmed to 2.7%, the forecasted budget deficit has been revised lower for the entire FY13-15 period and the govt. has managed to avoid higher income taxes which is the best news taxpayers could hope for. The lower growth prediction was expected according to economists so the main reason for the ZAR’s slip yesterday was more due to international sentiment.
International news
EM currencies felt the pressure yesterday after the news that Russian armed forces were put on alert by President Putin, and although Russia stated that the action was “unrelated to events in the Ukraine", it has raised tensions in the area. Despite this the EUR has managed to strengthen against the GBP after positive unemployment data was released earlier out of Germany.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA PPI y/y
• 08:55 DE Unemployment rate sa
• 13:00 DE CPI y/y (preliminary)
• 13:00 EZ ECB’s Weidmann speaks
• 13:30 US Durable goods orders m/m
• 13:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 15:00 US Fed Chair Yellen testifies to the Senate
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Tuesday, 25 February 2014
Rand firm ahead of budget speech
Trade report 25/02/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.7500 – 10.9000
The Rand surprised yesterday and firmed to its strongest position in over a week despite negative data released out of China. The ZAR was trading at R10.8270 at 06:45GMT, 0.3% off its close in New York last night of R10.7940/USD.
Local news
Today sees the release of local GDP news which investors are hoping will help the ZAR hold onto its recent gains against the USD. This comes ahead of the budget speech by Pravin Gordhan tomorrow where the Finance Minister is expected to maintain a firm grip on public spending in order to encourage stronger economic growth in the longer term.
International news
A drop in property prices and reduced bank lending in China has emphasised the slowdown in the Chinese economy, which will keep the pressure on many EM currencies, heavily reliant on trade with the economic giant. Meanwhile the GBP has strengthened after data released reveals that the number of new mortgages approved has risen to the highest number in 6 years, adding to the theory that the UK economy is recovering steadily.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 07:00 SA Leading Indicator
• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R2030 – R1bn; R2037 – 800mn; R2048 – 550mn)
• 09:30 SA GDP y/y nsa
• 07:00 DE GDP y/y nsa (final)
• 14:00 US House price index m/m
• 14:00 US S&P/Case house price composite – 20y/y
• 15:00 US Consumer confidence
• 15:00 US Richmond Fed manufacturing index
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.7500 – 10.9000
The Rand surprised yesterday and firmed to its strongest position in over a week despite negative data released out of China. The ZAR was trading at R10.8270 at 06:45GMT, 0.3% off its close in New York last night of R10.7940/USD.
Local news
Today sees the release of local GDP news which investors are hoping will help the ZAR hold onto its recent gains against the USD. This comes ahead of the budget speech by Pravin Gordhan tomorrow where the Finance Minister is expected to maintain a firm grip on public spending in order to encourage stronger economic growth in the longer term.
International news
A drop in property prices and reduced bank lending in China has emphasised the slowdown in the Chinese economy, which will keep the pressure on many EM currencies, heavily reliant on trade with the economic giant. Meanwhile the GBP has strengthened after data released reveals that the number of new mortgages approved has risen to the highest number in 6 years, adding to the theory that the UK economy is recovering steadily.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 07:00 SA Leading Indicator
• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R2030 – R1bn; R2037 – 800mn; R2048 – 550mn)
• 09:30 SA GDP y/y nsa
• 07:00 DE GDP y/y nsa (final)
• 14:00 US House price index m/m
• 14:00 US S&P/Case house price composite – 20y/y
• 15:00 US Consumer confidence
• 15:00 US Richmond Fed manufacturing index
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Monday, 24 February 2014
ZAR holding onto gains
Trade report 24/02/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.9000 – 11.0300
The Rand managed to firm up towards the end of last week and has been managing to hold relatively steady after the USD took a knock due to the release of a string of softer than anticipated US data. The ZAR was trading at R10.9425/USD at 08:42am, very close to its close in New York on Friday evening of R10.9350/USD.
Local news
The local currency has benefited recently off the weaker USD and the ease on global risk aversion. With some key local data due out this week, it could be an important week for the ZAR, with investors hoping the currency can continue to make gains. Q4 GDP, January money supply and PCSE trade figures are all due out this week as well as the budget speech on Wednesday, which is an important day for the bond market.
International news
Industrial production data, housing starts and permits and existing home sales data released last week were all softer than expected causing to USD to weaken against most of its peers and giving emerging market currencies a reprieve. The resolution to the Ukraine political crisis where parliament removed the president over the week-end, has also helped EMs stabilise after a volatile few days last week.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 01:30 CN China property prices
• 09:00 DE IFO business climate
• 10:00 EZ CPI y/y (final)
• 13:30 US Chicago Fed activity index
• 15:30 US Dallas Fed manufacturing activity
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.9000 – 11.0300
The Rand managed to firm up towards the end of last week and has been managing to hold relatively steady after the USD took a knock due to the release of a string of softer than anticipated US data. The ZAR was trading at R10.9425/USD at 08:42am, very close to its close in New York on Friday evening of R10.9350/USD.
Local news
The local currency has benefited recently off the weaker USD and the ease on global risk aversion. With some key local data due out this week, it could be an important week for the ZAR, with investors hoping the currency can continue to make gains. Q4 GDP, January money supply and PCSE trade figures are all due out this week as well as the budget speech on Wednesday, which is an important day for the bond market.
International news
Industrial production data, housing starts and permits and existing home sales data released last week were all softer than expected causing to USD to weaken against most of its peers and giving emerging market currencies a reprieve. The resolution to the Ukraine political crisis where parliament removed the president over the week-end, has also helped EMs stabilise after a volatile few days last week.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 01:30 CN China property prices
• 09:00 DE IFO business climate
• 10:00 EZ CPI y/y (final)
• 13:30 US Chicago Fed activity index
• 15:30 US Dallas Fed manufacturing activity
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Thursday, 20 February 2014
Rand loses ground
Trade report 20/02/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 11.0100 – 11.1600
The Rand slipped below the key R11.00/USD level late yesterday afternoon as emerging market sentiment took a turn for the worse. The ZAR was trading at R11.0625/USD at 06:07GMT, down almost 0.2% from its close in New York yesterday evening and the first time this week it has ended a session below 11.
Local news
Local data revealed yesterday that consumer inflation has risen from 5.4% in December to a higher than anticipated 5.8% in January. The ZAR initially strengthened on this news but this did not last long as investors started selling off emerging market assets. Ongoing strikes also keep the pressure on the Rand as they have now cost the economy an estimated R4.4bn in revenue.
International news
Two main factors have caused the recent sell off in emerging market assets. First being the poor data out of China. HSBC Chinese manufacturing data has fallen to a 7 month low in Feb of 48.3 as employment fell at its fastest pace in 5 years. Secondly speakers from the Fed yesterday re-iterated the positive outlook on the US growth economy and the FOMC minutes released pointed to the continuing of the Fed taper in a predictable steady manner.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 07:00 DE Producer prices y/y
• 08:30 DE PMI manufacturing (advance)
• 09:00 EZ PMI manufacturing (advance)
• 13:30 US CPI y/y
• 13:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 13:58 US Markit PMI manufacturing
• 15:00 US Philadelphia Fed index
• 15:00 EZ Consumer Confidence
• 15:00 US Leading Indicators
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 11.0100 – 11.1600
The Rand slipped below the key R11.00/USD level late yesterday afternoon as emerging market sentiment took a turn for the worse. The ZAR was trading at R11.0625/USD at 06:07GMT, down almost 0.2% from its close in New York yesterday evening and the first time this week it has ended a session below 11.
Local news
Local data revealed yesterday that consumer inflation has risen from 5.4% in December to a higher than anticipated 5.8% in January. The ZAR initially strengthened on this news but this did not last long as investors started selling off emerging market assets. Ongoing strikes also keep the pressure on the Rand as they have now cost the economy an estimated R4.4bn in revenue.
International news
Two main factors have caused the recent sell off in emerging market assets. First being the poor data out of China. HSBC Chinese manufacturing data has fallen to a 7 month low in Feb of 48.3 as employment fell at its fastest pace in 5 years. Secondly speakers from the Fed yesterday re-iterated the positive outlook on the US growth economy and the FOMC minutes released pointed to the continuing of the Fed taper in a predictable steady manner.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 07:00 DE Producer prices y/y
• 08:30 DE PMI manufacturing (advance)
• 09:00 EZ PMI manufacturing (advance)
• 13:30 US CPI y/y
• 13:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 13:58 US Markit PMI manufacturing
• 15:00 US Philadelphia Fed index
• 15:00 EZ Consumer Confidence
• 15:00 US Leading Indicators
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Tuesday, 18 February 2014
Rand steady after quieter start to the week
Trade report 18/02/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.7700 – 10.9200
Yesterday was a quiet day in the markets as the US markets enjoyed a public holiday. This allowed emerging market currencies to consolidate their recent gains due to a broadly weaker USD. The Rand was trading at R10.8625/USD at 06:11GMT this morning, which was 0.4% down from its close of R10.8200/USD in New York yesterday evening.
Local news
Upbeat emerging market sentiment has supported the ZAR over the past few days and helped it break through the psychological R11.00/USD level, but local issues continue to leave the ZAR vulnerable. Ongoing labour unrest which may now result in more job losses continues to damage investor confidence and South Africa’s twin deficits remain uncomfortably high. Investors will be hoping for positive CPI data tomorrow which may help the Rand maintain its recent gains.
International news
Today sees the release of German/EZ ZEW economic sentiment as well as US Empire manufacturing data, but this will unlikely have any significant effect in the markets. Investors will be more eagerly awaiting tomorrows Fed speeches and US data as well as the local CPI release.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R2023 – 550mn; R2030 – 1bn; R209 – 800mn)
• 09:00 EZ Current account (seasonally adjusted) (EUR)
• 09:30 GB CPI y/y
• 09:30 GB PPI output core y/y n.s.a
• 10:00 DE ZEW economic sentiment
• 13:30 US Empire manufacturing
• 15:00 US NAHB Housing market index
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.7700 – 10.9200
Yesterday was a quiet day in the markets as the US markets enjoyed a public holiday. This allowed emerging market currencies to consolidate their recent gains due to a broadly weaker USD. The Rand was trading at R10.8625/USD at 06:11GMT this morning, which was 0.4% down from its close of R10.8200/USD in New York yesterday evening.
Local news
Upbeat emerging market sentiment has supported the ZAR over the past few days and helped it break through the psychological R11.00/USD level, but local issues continue to leave the ZAR vulnerable. Ongoing labour unrest which may now result in more job losses continues to damage investor confidence and South Africa’s twin deficits remain uncomfortably high. Investors will be hoping for positive CPI data tomorrow which may help the Rand maintain its recent gains.
International news
Today sees the release of German/EZ ZEW economic sentiment as well as US Empire manufacturing data, but this will unlikely have any significant effect in the markets. Investors will be more eagerly awaiting tomorrows Fed speeches and US data as well as the local CPI release.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R2023 – 550mn; R2030 – 1bn; R209 – 800mn)
• 09:00 EZ Current account (seasonally adjusted) (EUR)
• 09:30 GB CPI y/y
• 09:30 GB PPI output core y/y n.s.a
• 10:00 DE ZEW economic sentiment
• 13:30 US Empire manufacturing
• 15:00 US NAHB Housing market index
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Monday, 17 February 2014
ZAR enjoys multi-week highs
Trade report 17/02/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.8100 – 11.9400
The ZAR has managed to firm up nicely over the last few sessions as the USD experiences a period of broad weakness. The main reasons for this are firstly signs of an improving UK economy and secondly recent softer data out of the US which has been interpreted as an indication that the Fed may slow its pace of QE tapering. The Rand was trading at R10.8580/USD at 06:54GMT this morning, very close to its close in New York on Friday and the second consecutive session where it managed to close below R11.00/USD.
Local news
The strengthening Rand is mainly due to international market sentiment rather than local at the moment and SA CPI data due out this week will unlikely have much of an impact. Meanwhile the current account deficit remains large as the recent rate hike was too modest to make much of a dent, but the SARB is very weary of debt-ridden consumers and needing to maintain a decent level of economic growth.
International news
Chinese sentiment has improved over the last week with upbeat data released indicating that January saw the highest volume of loans of any month over the last four years, which would suggest that the economy may not be slowing down as much as has been feared. This is good news for emerging market currencies and with it being a quieter day as the US markets celebrate Presidents Day Holiday, they should be able to consolidate their recent gains.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• US Market holiday – Presidents Day
• O/N JP GDP q/q annualized (preliminary)
• 00:01 GB Rightmove house prices y/y
• 04:30 JP Industrial production y/y (final)
• 11:00 US ECB’s Nowotny speaks
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.8100 – 11.9400
The ZAR has managed to firm up nicely over the last few sessions as the USD experiences a period of broad weakness. The main reasons for this are firstly signs of an improving UK economy and secondly recent softer data out of the US which has been interpreted as an indication that the Fed may slow its pace of QE tapering. The Rand was trading at R10.8580/USD at 06:54GMT this morning, very close to its close in New York on Friday and the second consecutive session where it managed to close below R11.00/USD.
Local news
The strengthening Rand is mainly due to international market sentiment rather than local at the moment and SA CPI data due out this week will unlikely have much of an impact. Meanwhile the current account deficit remains large as the recent rate hike was too modest to make much of a dent, but the SARB is very weary of debt-ridden consumers and needing to maintain a decent level of economic growth.
International news
Chinese sentiment has improved over the last week with upbeat data released indicating that January saw the highest volume of loans of any month over the last four years, which would suggest that the economy may not be slowing down as much as has been feared. This is good news for emerging market currencies and with it being a quieter day as the US markets celebrate Presidents Day Holiday, they should be able to consolidate their recent gains.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• US Market holiday – Presidents Day
• O/N JP GDP q/q annualized (preliminary)
• 00:01 GB Rightmove house prices y/y
• 04:30 JP Industrial production y/y (final)
• 11:00 US ECB’s Nowotny speaks
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Friday, 14 February 2014
Rand steady on quieter day in the markets
Trade report 14/02/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.9300 – 11.0800
Dollar weakness, not helped by soft US data released yesterday, has helped the ZAR stay steady this week, despite ongoing strike action and South Africa's wide fiscal and current account deficits. The Rand was trading at 11.0200/USD at 07:12GMT, 0.46% weaker than its close in New York on Thursday evening.
Local news
President Zuma delivered a very average “State of the Nation” speech yesterday thought to be full of empty promises and as such failed to make any impact on the markets. Meanwhile the countries wide current account and budget account deficits continue to weigh heavily on the local currency discouraging investors along with ongoing strike action and violent protests.
International news
The USD has been trading softer against its major peers, which has definitely helped emerging market currencies this week. With little key data due for release today it is thought today will be a quieter day in the markets and the ZAR will likely track fellow EM currency the Turkish Lira which posted a sizeable $65bn C/A deficit yesterday.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 07:00 DE GDP WDA y/y (preliminary)
• 10:00 EZ Trade balance (EUR) sa
• 10:00 EZ GDP sa q/q (advance)
• 13:30 US Import price index y/y
• 14:15 US Industrial production m/m
• 14:55 US Michigan consumer confidence (preliminary)
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.9300 – 11.0800
Dollar weakness, not helped by soft US data released yesterday, has helped the ZAR stay steady this week, despite ongoing strike action and South Africa's wide fiscal and current account deficits. The Rand was trading at 11.0200/USD at 07:12GMT, 0.46% weaker than its close in New York on Thursday evening.
Local news
President Zuma delivered a very average “State of the Nation” speech yesterday thought to be full of empty promises and as such failed to make any impact on the markets. Meanwhile the countries wide current account and budget account deficits continue to weigh heavily on the local currency discouraging investors along with ongoing strike action and violent protests.
International news
The USD has been trading softer against its major peers, which has definitely helped emerging market currencies this week. With little key data due for release today it is thought today will be a quieter day in the markets and the ZAR will likely track fellow EM currency the Turkish Lira which posted a sizeable $65bn C/A deficit yesterday.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 07:00 DE GDP WDA y/y (preliminary)
• 10:00 EZ Trade balance (EUR) sa
• 10:00 EZ GDP sa q/q (advance)
• 13:30 US Import price index y/y
• 14:15 US Industrial production m/m
• 14:55 US Michigan consumer confidence (preliminary)
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Thursday, 13 February 2014
ZAR softer despite improved retail sales data
Trade report 13/02/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.9900 – 11.1400
The ZAR has been holding relatively steady against the USD over the last day, but has failed to maintain its level below R11.00/USD. It reached a high of R10.9300/USD but never managed to hold onto the gains despite better than anticipated retail sales data being released. The currency was at R11.0495/USD at 08:16 this morning, 0.4% off its close in New York on Wednesday evening.
Local news
Yesterday’s retail sales data came in better than expected at 3.5% y/y after economists expected growth of 2.7%y/y. Despite this the ZAR failed to hold onto its recent gains and broke above the key R11.00/USD level. The currency is struggling against negative investor sentiment with ongoing strikes and protests in townships, and yesterday’s tension between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance only managed to highlight this. The spotlight today will be on President Jacob Zuma’s state of the Nation address, his last before the elections in May.
International news
Today sees the release of US retail sales and jobs data which investors will be paying close attention to, knowing that the Fed will be basing further taper decisions on this, and coming data releases. Meanwhile disappointing data out of the EZ, including record high unemployment levels in Greece, has caused the EUR to lose its recent gains against the GBP.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Mining production y/y
• 17:00 SA President Zuma delivers State of the Nation address
• 07:00 DE CPI y/y (final)
• 09:00 EZ ECB releases monthly report
• 13:30 US Advance Retail sales m/m
• 13:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 15:00 US Business inventories m/m
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.9900 – 11.1400
The ZAR has been holding relatively steady against the USD over the last day, but has failed to maintain its level below R11.00/USD. It reached a high of R10.9300/USD but never managed to hold onto the gains despite better than anticipated retail sales data being released. The currency was at R11.0495/USD at 08:16 this morning, 0.4% off its close in New York on Wednesday evening.
Local news
Yesterday’s retail sales data came in better than expected at 3.5% y/y after economists expected growth of 2.7%y/y. Despite this the ZAR failed to hold onto its recent gains and broke above the key R11.00/USD level. The currency is struggling against negative investor sentiment with ongoing strikes and protests in townships, and yesterday’s tension between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance only managed to highlight this. The spotlight today will be on President Jacob Zuma’s state of the Nation address, his last before the elections in May.
International news
Today sees the release of US retail sales and jobs data which investors will be paying close attention to, knowing that the Fed will be basing further taper decisions on this, and coming data releases. Meanwhile disappointing data out of the EZ, including record high unemployment levels in Greece, has caused the EUR to lose its recent gains against the GBP.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Mining production y/y
• 17:00 SA President Zuma delivers State of the Nation address
• 07:00 DE CPI y/y (final)
• 09:00 EZ ECB releases monthly report
• 13:30 US Advance Retail sales m/m
• 13:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 15:00 US Business inventories m/m
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Wednesday, 12 February 2014
Chinese sentiment helps Rand remain steady
Trade report 12/02/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.9000 – 11.0500
The ZAR has managed to hold onto its recent against against the USD and even remain below the key R11.00/USD level, after trade data out of China and encouraging local data was released. The Rand was trading at R10.9650/USD at 06:51GMT, very close to its close in New York on Tuesday evening. It was the best performing EM currency yesterday at +1.6% vs. the USD.
Local news
Local data released yesterday revealed that the unemployment rate has slowed to 24.1% in Q4 from 24.5% and that manufacturing growth has improved to 2.5% y/y. While these figures are hardly reason to celebrate, the figures are encouraging and along with the trade surplus out of China, have allowed the Rand to hold steady below the R11.00/USD level for the moment.
International news
Chinese trade data has come in firmly on the topside with both import and export growth which has helped the ZAR firm up as well as most emerging markets. Janet Yellens testimony came across in a dovish tone yesterday as she noted that the recovery in the US jobs market is “far from complete”. She did however hint that the Fed taper is likely to continue to taper. Despite this EM markets generally performed well with most ending stronger on the day.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 11:00 SA Retail sales constant y/y
• 10:00 EZ Industrial production wda y/y
• 10:30 GB BoE releases Inflation Report
• 11:15 EZ ECB’s Praet speaks
• 12:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 13:45 US Fed’s Bullard speaks
• 15:30 EZ ECB Pres. Draghi speaks
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.9000 – 11.0500
The ZAR has managed to hold onto its recent against against the USD and even remain below the key R11.00/USD level, after trade data out of China and encouraging local data was released. The Rand was trading at R10.9650/USD at 06:51GMT, very close to its close in New York on Tuesday evening. It was the best performing EM currency yesterday at +1.6% vs. the USD.
Local news
Local data released yesterday revealed that the unemployment rate has slowed to 24.1% in Q4 from 24.5% and that manufacturing growth has improved to 2.5% y/y. While these figures are hardly reason to celebrate, the figures are encouraging and along with the trade surplus out of China, have allowed the Rand to hold steady below the R11.00/USD level for the moment.
International news
Chinese trade data has come in firmly on the topside with both import and export growth which has helped the ZAR firm up as well as most emerging markets. Janet Yellens testimony came across in a dovish tone yesterday as she noted that the recovery in the US jobs market is “far from complete”. She did however hint that the Fed taper is likely to continue to taper. Despite this EM markets generally performed well with most ending stronger on the day.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 11:00 SA Retail sales constant y/y
• 10:00 EZ Industrial production wda y/y
• 10:30 GB BoE releases Inflation Report
• 11:15 EZ ECB’s Praet speaks
• 12:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 13:45 US Fed’s Bullard speaks
• 15:30 EZ ECB Pres. Draghi speaks
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Tuesday, 11 February 2014
ZAR holding steady ahead of new Fed Chair speech
Trade report 11/02/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 11.0500 – 11.2100
The Rand has remained under pressure over the past few days as ongoing strikes have not yet been resolved by the mediating parties, although a weaker USD ahead of the new US Federal Reserve chairperson Janet Yellen’s speech to Congress, is helping the Rand stay more or less steady. This morning the Rand was trading at R11.1245 at 06:45GMT, slightly firmer than its close in New York on Monday.
Local news
Strike action in the platinum sector is now into its third week which is keeping a negative spotlight on the South African economy, and in turn putting pressure on the local currency which was the second worst performer of the EM currencies yesterday. The markets will be keenly awaiting unemployment and manufacturing data due for release today, as this may offer insight into whether the Reserve Bank may increase interest rates again this year, after its surprise rate hike last month.
International news
The USD is trading slightly weaker today ahead of Janet Yellens speech to Congress which is expected to be dovish in its nature. In other news HSBC released its EM composite PMI yesterday which noted the slowdown below the neutral 50.0 mark by China. Investors are nervous of a further slowdown by the Chinese economy during the year and the markets will therefore be paying close attention to the Chinese trade data, due for release soon, which may put further pressure on EM’s should it be disappointing.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R2030 – 1bn; R2037 – 800mn; R2048 – 550mn)
• 09:30 SA Unemployment rate
• 11:00 SA Manufacturing production n.s.a. y/y
• JP Market holiday – National Founding Day
• 15:00 US Fed Chairman Yellen testifies before the House
• 15:00 US Wholesale inventories m/m
• 15:00 US Wholesale sales m/m
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 11.0500 – 11.2100
The Rand has remained under pressure over the past few days as ongoing strikes have not yet been resolved by the mediating parties, although a weaker USD ahead of the new US Federal Reserve chairperson Janet Yellen’s speech to Congress, is helping the Rand stay more or less steady. This morning the Rand was trading at R11.1245 at 06:45GMT, slightly firmer than its close in New York on Monday.
Local news
Strike action in the platinum sector is now into its third week which is keeping a negative spotlight on the South African economy, and in turn putting pressure on the local currency which was the second worst performer of the EM currencies yesterday. The markets will be keenly awaiting unemployment and manufacturing data due for release today, as this may offer insight into whether the Reserve Bank may increase interest rates again this year, after its surprise rate hike last month.
International news
The USD is trading slightly weaker today ahead of Janet Yellens speech to Congress which is expected to be dovish in its nature. In other news HSBC released its EM composite PMI yesterday which noted the slowdown below the neutral 50.0 mark by China. Investors are nervous of a further slowdown by the Chinese economy during the year and the markets will therefore be paying close attention to the Chinese trade data, due for release soon, which may put further pressure on EM’s should it be disappointing.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R2030 – 1bn; R2037 – 800mn; R2048 – 550mn)
• 09:30 SA Unemployment rate
• 11:00 SA Manufacturing production n.s.a. y/y
• JP Market holiday – National Founding Day
• 15:00 US Fed Chairman Yellen testifies before the House
• 15:00 US Wholesale inventories m/m
• 15:00 US Wholesale sales m/m
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Friday, 7 February 2014
ZAR holding onto gains ahead of US data releases
Trade report 07/02/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 11.0500 – 11.2100
The ZAR managed to gain over 1% yesterday, even breaking the R11.00/USD level briefly, as the currency tracked other emerging markets that were benefitting off a weaker USD. The rand was at R11.0350/USD at 06:16GMT very close to its overnight close in New York.
Local news
News of ongoing strike action and other domestic issues seems to have been put to one side as the local currency managed to rally against the USD yesterday moving in line with other emerging market currencies. Movement of the Rand in general at the moment seems dependent on international data. With some key data due out today it will be interesting to note if the Rand can hold onto its recent gains.
International news
The USD has been under pressure this week and investors will be watching closely for news on key nonfarm-payrolls and unemployment data which is due for release later today. General expectation in the markets is one of a significant improvement which will most likely help the USD strengthen but in turn will see the ZAR and other EMs lose some of their gains they have made during the week.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 06:00 SA Net reserves
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 07:00 DE Trade balance (EUR)
• 09:30 GB Visible trade balance (GBP)
• 09:30 GB Industrial production y/y
• 11:00 DE Industrial production wda y/y
• 13:30 US Change in nonfarm payrolls
• 13:30 US Unemployment rate
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 11.0500 – 11.2100
The ZAR managed to gain over 1% yesterday, even breaking the R11.00/USD level briefly, as the currency tracked other emerging markets that were benefitting off a weaker USD. The rand was at R11.0350/USD at 06:16GMT very close to its overnight close in New York.
Local news
News of ongoing strike action and other domestic issues seems to have been put to one side as the local currency managed to rally against the USD yesterday moving in line with other emerging market currencies. Movement of the Rand in general at the moment seems dependent on international data. With some key data due out today it will be interesting to note if the Rand can hold onto its recent gains.
International news
The USD has been under pressure this week and investors will be watching closely for news on key nonfarm-payrolls and unemployment data which is due for release later today. General expectation in the markets is one of a significant improvement which will most likely help the USD strengthen but in turn will see the ZAR and other EMs lose some of their gains they have made during the week.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 06:00 SA Net reserves
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 07:00 DE Trade balance (EUR)
• 09:30 GB Visible trade balance (GBP)
• 09:30 GB Industrial production y/y
• 11:00 DE Industrial production wda y/y
• 13:30 US Change in nonfarm payrolls
• 13:30 US Unemployment rate
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Thursday, 6 February 2014
ZAR holding onto limited gains
Trade report 06/02/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 11.0500 – 11.2100
There was little action in the markets yesterday for EM currencies and they seem to be going through a period of consolidation as investor sentiment picks up again slowly. The Rand has managed to move away from its 5 year low of last week but has failed to break through the R11.06/07/USD level. This morning at 06:47GMT the local currency was sitting at R11.0950/USD slightly improved from its overnight close in New York.
Local news
Negative investor sentiment, in part due to the ongoing strike by the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union is thought to be holding the ZAR back and keeping it from breaking through the key R11.06/07 level. The CCMA has now stepped in to try and help the parties reach a settlement but each day lost puts added strain on the economy.
International news
ADP data out of the US yesterday was lower than expected, but still strong enough to indicate that tomorrow’s payroll figures shouldn’t provide any major surprises. PMI data also increased to 54.0 from 53.0. This US data increases speculation that the Fed will continue with its taper plan at the next FOMC meeting. Another point of interest today is the BoE rate decision which markets anticipate will be a doveish decision.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 11:00 DE Factory orders y/y
• 12:00 GB BoE rate decision
• 12:45 EZ ECB refi rate announcement
• 13:30 EZ ECB’s Draghi holds press conference
• 13:30 US Trade balance (USD)
• 13:30 US Initial jobless claims
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 11.0500 – 11.2100
There was little action in the markets yesterday for EM currencies and they seem to be going through a period of consolidation as investor sentiment picks up again slowly. The Rand has managed to move away from its 5 year low of last week but has failed to break through the R11.06/07/USD level. This morning at 06:47GMT the local currency was sitting at R11.0950/USD slightly improved from its overnight close in New York.
Local news
Negative investor sentiment, in part due to the ongoing strike by the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union is thought to be holding the ZAR back and keeping it from breaking through the key R11.06/07 level. The CCMA has now stepped in to try and help the parties reach a settlement but each day lost puts added strain on the economy.
International news
ADP data out of the US yesterday was lower than expected, but still strong enough to indicate that tomorrow’s payroll figures shouldn’t provide any major surprises. PMI data also increased to 54.0 from 53.0. This US data increases speculation that the Fed will continue with its taper plan at the next FOMC meeting. Another point of interest today is the BoE rate decision which markets anticipate will be a doveish decision.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 11:00 DE Factory orders y/y
• 12:00 GB BoE rate decision
• 12:45 EZ ECB refi rate announcement
• 13:30 EZ ECB’s Draghi holds press conference
• 13:30 US Trade balance (USD)
• 13:30 US Initial jobless claims
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Wednesday, 5 February 2014
ZAR steady as global risk sentiment improves
Trade report 05/02/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 11.0500 – 11.2100
The ZAR has managed to maintain its recent gains on the USD, as it recovers from the volatility of last week. Direction seems to be coming from the general recovery of emerging markets as global sentiment has improved slightly. The Rand was trading at R11.1275 to the dollar at 06:49GMT, and hoping to remain steady while investors wait for further data which may provide clues regarding timing and extent of the Feds next taper.
Local news
The Rand is currently tracking other emerging market currencies which is helping it hold onto recent gains, despite the news of clashes between the police and striking mineworkers. Police fired rubber bullets and stun grenades to disperse 3000 striking workers at Amplats shaft yesterday. Looking long term the Rand is in a tricky position as further interest rate hikes are needed to reduce its twin deficits, but this would reduce inflows to bonds, which is needed to help prop up the Rand in the short-term.
International news
ADP employment data and ISM non-manufacturing PMI data are due for release from the US today, which investors will be watching for to provide further clues on the US growth trajectory, which in turn gives investors a better idea of what the Fed’s next move might be in regard to further tapering and to what extent. The Euro has gained on the GBP this morning after PMI data came in better than anticipated, and it is hoped that the region is starting to put the debt crisis behind it, although unemployment levels remain close to record highs.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 07:15 SA HSBC/Markit PMI
• 08:55 DE PMI services (final)
• 09:00 EZ PMI services (final)
• 09:30 GB PMI services
• 10:00 EZ Retail sales y/y
• 13:15 US ADP employment change
• 15:00 US ISM non-manufacturing composite PMI
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 11.0500 – 11.2100
The ZAR has managed to maintain its recent gains on the USD, as it recovers from the volatility of last week. Direction seems to be coming from the general recovery of emerging markets as global sentiment has improved slightly. The Rand was trading at R11.1275 to the dollar at 06:49GMT, and hoping to remain steady while investors wait for further data which may provide clues regarding timing and extent of the Feds next taper.
Local news
The Rand is currently tracking other emerging market currencies which is helping it hold onto recent gains, despite the news of clashes between the police and striking mineworkers. Police fired rubber bullets and stun grenades to disperse 3000 striking workers at Amplats shaft yesterday. Looking long term the Rand is in a tricky position as further interest rate hikes are needed to reduce its twin deficits, but this would reduce inflows to bonds, which is needed to help prop up the Rand in the short-term.
International news
ADP employment data and ISM non-manufacturing PMI data are due for release from the US today, which investors will be watching for to provide further clues on the US growth trajectory, which in turn gives investors a better idea of what the Fed’s next move might be in regard to further tapering and to what extent. The Euro has gained on the GBP this morning after PMI data came in better than anticipated, and it is hoped that the region is starting to put the debt crisis behind it, although unemployment levels remain close to record highs.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 07:15 SA HSBC/Markit PMI
• 08:55 DE PMI services (final)
• 09:00 EZ PMI services (final)
• 09:30 GB PMI services
• 10:00 EZ Retail sales y/y
• 13:15 US ADP employment change
• 15:00 US ISM non-manufacturing composite PMI
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Tuesday, 4 February 2014
Rand enjoying more steady phase after last weeks volatility
Trade report 04/02/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 11.1600 – 11.3100
The ZAR managed to remain steady and even firm up slightly yesterday, after reaching 5 year lows during last week’s volatility. The Rand was up 0.3% from yesterdays close, by 06:22GMT trading at R11.2400/USD. The question now is whether the currency can hold onto these gains with both local and key international data such as US non-farm payrolls due for release this week.
Local news
The emerging market sell off last week put strain on the local currency, and the markets viewed the surprising interest rate hike as insufficient. Investors will be watching to see if the SARB continues with its interest rate hike trend, although with SA experiencing weak growth this is most likely not what the SARB will want to do. In other news AMCU resumed talks this morning with platinum producers in a hope to reach a deal and end the strike which is costing the country an estimated R400m per day.
International news
PMI data from China came in disappointingly, which confirms the Asian giant is experiencing a growth slowdown. This is not good news for emerging markets, such as South Africa, that are heavily reliant on trade exports to the country. Meanwhile the GBP softened against its most traded peers after PMI data revealed an unexpected slowdown in the UK manufacturing sector. Encouraging EZ PMI data, including a return to growth for Greece, helped the EUR gain against the GBP and the USD.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R2030 – 1bn; R209 – 800mn; R214 – 550mn)
• 09:30 SA SACCI business confidence
• 11:00 SA Solidarity/ETM Labour Market Index
• 09:30 GB PMI construction
• 10:00 EZ PPI y/y
• 14:45 US ISM New York PMI
• 15:00 US Factory Orders
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 11.1600 – 11.3100
The ZAR managed to remain steady and even firm up slightly yesterday, after reaching 5 year lows during last week’s volatility. The Rand was up 0.3% from yesterdays close, by 06:22GMT trading at R11.2400/USD. The question now is whether the currency can hold onto these gains with both local and key international data such as US non-farm payrolls due for release this week.
Local news
The emerging market sell off last week put strain on the local currency, and the markets viewed the surprising interest rate hike as insufficient. Investors will be watching to see if the SARB continues with its interest rate hike trend, although with SA experiencing weak growth this is most likely not what the SARB will want to do. In other news AMCU resumed talks this morning with platinum producers in a hope to reach a deal and end the strike which is costing the country an estimated R400m per day.
International news
PMI data from China came in disappointingly, which confirms the Asian giant is experiencing a growth slowdown. This is not good news for emerging markets, such as South Africa, that are heavily reliant on trade exports to the country. Meanwhile the GBP softened against its most traded peers after PMI data revealed an unexpected slowdown in the UK manufacturing sector. Encouraging EZ PMI data, including a return to growth for Greece, helped the EUR gain against the GBP and the USD.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R2030 – 1bn; R209 – 800mn; R214 – 550mn)
• 09:30 SA SACCI business confidence
• 11:00 SA Solidarity/ETM Labour Market Index
• 09:30 GB PMI construction
• 10:00 EZ PPI y/y
• 14:45 US ISM New York PMI
• 15:00 US Factory Orders
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Monday, 3 February 2014
Rand steady but pressure remains
Trade report 03/01/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 11.0700 – 11.2200
The shedding of emerging market assets has slowed for the moment allowing the EM currencies a reprieve. This helped the ZAR recover slightly on Friday, although the pressure remains as this morning at 06:35GMT the ZAR was already marginally down from its close in New York on Friday and was trading at R11.1900/USD.
Local news
The SARB's decision to increase interest rates last week failed to stop the ZAR’s slump as the market viewed the move as insufficient and the ZAR reached a fresh 5 year low. The local currency is currently relatively steady against the USD, although it is thought nervous sentiment over EM currencies will most probably drive the direction of the ZAR this week.
International news
Investors will be watching out for the release of US data this week to gauge whether the encouraging improvement in the US economy is likely to be sustained, and therefore point towards a continuing of the Fed taper. Market sentiment at the moment is that this is the case, keeping SA and all emerging markets on the backfoot.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:00 SA Kagiso PMI
• SA Naamsa vehicle sales y/y
• 08:55 DE PMI manufacturing (final)
• 09:00 EZ PMI manufacturing (final)
• 09:30 GB PMI manufacturing
• 13:58 US Markit PMI manufacturing (final)
• 15:00 US ISM manufacturing PMI
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 11.0700 – 11.2200
The shedding of emerging market assets has slowed for the moment allowing the EM currencies a reprieve. This helped the ZAR recover slightly on Friday, although the pressure remains as this morning at 06:35GMT the ZAR was already marginally down from its close in New York on Friday and was trading at R11.1900/USD.
Local news
The SARB's decision to increase interest rates last week failed to stop the ZAR’s slump as the market viewed the move as insufficient and the ZAR reached a fresh 5 year low. The local currency is currently relatively steady against the USD, although it is thought nervous sentiment over EM currencies will most probably drive the direction of the ZAR this week.
International news
Investors will be watching out for the release of US data this week to gauge whether the encouraging improvement in the US economy is likely to be sustained, and therefore point towards a continuing of the Fed taper. Market sentiment at the moment is that this is the case, keeping SA and all emerging markets on the backfoot.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:00 SA Kagiso PMI
• SA Naamsa vehicle sales y/y
• 08:55 DE PMI manufacturing (final)
• 09:00 EZ PMI manufacturing (final)
• 09:30 GB PMI manufacturing
• 13:58 US Markit PMI manufacturing (final)
• 15:00 US ISM manufacturing PMI
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
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