Tuesday 25 February 2014

Rand firm ahead of budget speech

Trade report 25/02/2014

ZAR outlook

USD/ZAR expected range: 10.7500 – 10.9000

The Rand surprised yesterday and firmed to its strongest position in over a week despite negative data released out of China.  The ZAR was trading at R10.8270 at 06:45GMT, 0.3% off its close in New York last night of R10.7940/USD.

Local news

Today sees the release of local GDP news which investors are hoping will help the ZAR hold onto its recent gains against the USD.  This comes ahead of the budget speech by Pravin Gordhan tomorrow where the Finance Minister is expected to maintain a firm grip on public spending in order to encourage stronger economic growth in the longer term.

International news

A drop in property prices and reduced bank lending in China has emphasised the slowdown in the Chinese economy, which will keep the pressure on many EM currencies, heavily reliant on trade with the economic giant.  Meanwhile the GBP has strengthened after data released reveals that the number of new mortgages approved has risen to the highest number in 6 years, adding to the theory that the UK economy is recovering steadily.

TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):

• 07:00 SA Leading Indicator
• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R2030 – R1bn; R2037 – 800mn; R2048 – 550mn)
• 09:30 SA GDP y/y nsa
• 07:00 DE GDP y/y nsa (final)
• 14:00 US House price index m/m
• 14:00  US S&P/Case house price composite – 20y/y
• 15:00 US Consumer confidence
• 15:00 US Richmond Fed manufacturing index


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