Trade report 03/01/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 11.0700 – 11.2200
The shedding of emerging market assets has slowed for the moment allowing the EM currencies a reprieve. This helped the ZAR recover slightly on Friday, although the pressure remains as this morning at 06:35GMT the ZAR was already marginally down from its close in New York on Friday and was trading at R11.1900/USD.
Local news
The SARB's decision to increase interest rates last week failed to stop the ZAR’s slump as the market viewed the move as insufficient and the ZAR reached a fresh 5 year low. The local currency is currently relatively steady against the USD, although it is thought nervous sentiment over EM currencies will most probably drive the direction of the ZAR this week.
International news
Investors will be watching out for the release of US data this week to gauge whether the encouraging improvement in the US economy is likely to be sustained, and therefore point towards a continuing of the Fed taper. Market sentiment at the moment is that this is the case, keeping SA and all emerging markets on the backfoot.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:00 SA Kagiso PMI
• SA Naamsa vehicle sales y/y
• 08:55 DE PMI manufacturing (final)
• 09:00 EZ PMI manufacturing (final)
• 09:30 GB PMI manufacturing
• 13:58 US Markit PMI manufacturing (final)
• 15:00 US ISM manufacturing PMI
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