Trade report 11/01/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.5800 – 10.7300
The surprisingly low US non-farm payrolls data provided the ZAR with some much needed relief on Friday afternoon and the Rand managed to firm up and retreat from its 5 year lows of last week. This morning at 06:46GMT the Rand was trading at R10.6650/USD, only 0.14% softer than its close in New York on Friday evening.
Local news
Despite the slight recovery by the ZAR over the last few sessions, South Africa’s continued reliance on external funding continues to keep pressure on the currency and although the recent volatility should decline this week, it is generally thought the weakening trend will slowly resume. This is mainly due to the countries weak domestic growth outlook and dented investor appetite due to the threat of strike action.
International news
US non-farm payrolls data revealed that the US economy added only 74 000 jobs in December which was well below the expected 197 000. The data is said to be largely affected by adverse weather conditions, and economists don’t believe it will be the start of a trend, although January’s figures could be similarly affected. Investors meanwhile will be keenly awaiting the next string of US data releases due out during the course of the week.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• JP Market holiday (Coming of Age Day)
• 17:40 US Fed’s Lockhard speaks
• 19:00 US Monthly budget statement
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