Trade report 23/01/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.7700 – 10.9500
The ZAR is currently on the backfoot despite a better start to the week as the AMCU strike started this morning causing the local currency to face new 5 year lows. The ZAR was down 0.46% from its close in New York yesterday, by 06:47GMT this morning, trading at R10.9250, and looking to weaken even further.
Local news
More than 100 000 workers have downed tools today from Anglo American Platinum, Impala Platinum and Lonmin, three of the world’s top producers of platinum. The government’s attempt at talks yesterday proved fruitless and it remains to be seen whether mediation by Deputy President Motlanthe tomorrow will produce results. Theses strikes have huge negative effects on the country’s economic growth and put international businesses off investing in such a volatile labour climate.
International news
HSBC flash manufacturing PMI released in China has dropped to 49.6 from 50.5, which is further indication that economic growth in the country is on the slowdown. This is not good news for EM currencies, such as South Africa that rely on China as an export destination. There is also an increase in data releases from today including US jobless claims, PMI manufacturing and home sales which investors will be keenly watching for further evidence that the Fed will continue with it taper plans at the FOMC next week.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 08:30 DE PMI Composite (advance)
• 09:00 EZ Current account sa (EUR)
• 09:00 EZ PMI Composite (advance)
• 13:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 13:58 US Markit PMI manufacturing
• 14:00 US House price index m/m
• 15:00 EZ Consumer confidence (advance)
• 15:00 US Existing home sales
• 15:00 US Leading indicators
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