Trade report 15/01/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.8200 – 10.9800
The pressure on the Rand continues as the currency weakened towards a fresh 5-year low this morning against the USD which has been boosted by encouraging US data. The ZAR was trading at R10.8660/USD at 06:44 GMT this morning, down 0.3% from its close in New York yesterday evening.
Local news
Domestic retail sales and manufacturing data are due for release today. Economists are expecting a drop in year-on-year growth for November retail sales which will add to the ZARs woes as it creates a subdued outlook for 2013 GDP. Recent Chinese data released predicts a growth slowdown in 2014, also a negative factor for South Africa as it affects exports and leads commodity process lower.
International news
The USD enjoyed a boost yesterday as retail sales and inventories showed that the US economy is growing steadily. This adds to speculation that the Fed will go ahead with their taper plans especially after hawkish comments by Fed members yesterday hinting that they would like to see an end to the programme before the late part of 2014.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:00 SA Kagiso PMI
• 11:00 SA Retail sales constant y/y
• 08:00 DE GDP nsa y/y
• 10:00 EZ Trade balance sa (EUR)
• 13:30 US Empire manufacturing
• 13:30 US PPI y/y
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