Trade report 21/03/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.6700 – 10.8300
Investors have been waiting for the announcement of the FOMC decision and the release of local data before taking strong positions, which has allowed the Rand to hold steady in trading today so far. The ZAR was little changed this morning from its overnight close in New York of R10.7395/USD as was trading at R10.7455/USD at 06:33GMT this morning.
Local news
Today sees the release of much anticipated inflation data as it may give economists clues as to the SARB’s interest rate decision at its policy meeting next week. A Reuters poll expects inflation to have increased mainly due to the weaker Rand pushing up the CPI index. Retail sales data is also due for release today and the market expects this figure to have dropped as consumers battle increased prices and higher debt levels.
International news
The Fed is due to announce its taper decision today, although the expected $10bil taper will unlikely have much effect in the markets, having already mostly been priced in. After weeks of controversy, the signing of a treaty by President Putin making Crimea part of Russia has eased the tensions in the Ukraine area which helped emerging market currencies strengthen yesterday.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 08:00 SA CPI y/y
• 11:00 SA Retail sales constant
• 09:30 GB ILO unemployment rate (3 mths)
• 10:00 EZ Construction output wda y/y
• 12:30 US Current account balance
• 18:00 US Fed QE pace
• 18:00 US FOMC rate decision
• 18:30 US Fed Chair Yellen holds press conference
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