Trade report 13/03/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.7000 – 10.8500
The ZAR has been under pressure most of the week so far and even fell to a two week low as concerns over growth in China and tensions in the Ukraine unnerved investors. Today the ZAR has managed to recover slightly and is holding steady ahead of local and US data releases as investor sentiment has improved. The Rand was trading at R10.7850 /USD at 06:34GMT this morning, slightly firmer than its close in New York yesterday of R10.8005/USD.
Local news
The local current account deficit has narrowed from 6.4% in Q3 to 5.1% in Q4 which exceeded expectations by 0.4%, although it must be noted that a deficit of more than 5% to GDP is still considered pronounced and there was thus little reaction in the markets. Today sees the release of mining and manufacturing production data. The mining data may be a risk to the currency as recent strike action will most likely have a negative effect on the results.
International news
Despite recent concern over tension in the Ukraine, global sentiment to emerging markets assets has dramatically improved with strong rises in the Asian markets, and Turkey making solid gains despite fresh protest action in the area. Meanwhile the AUD has strengthened against the EUR after Australia posted impressive employment data, the biggest increase in over 12 years.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 07:00 SA SARB Deputy Gov. Mminele speaks
• 09:30 SA Mining production y/y
• 11:00 SA Manufacturing production n.s.a y/y
• 16:30 SA SARB Gov. Marcus speaks
• 12:30 US Advance retail sales
• 12:30 US Initial jobless claims
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