Trade report 10/03/2014
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.7000 – 10.8500
The ZAR enjoyed a few days of firm gains last week, but softened on better than expected USD non-farm payrolls data. It remains under pressure today as data out of China is disappointing, and so starts a data-heavy week on the backfoot. The currency was trading at R10.7700/USD at 06:35GMT this morning, down 0.4% from its close in New York on Friday evening.
Local news
There are significant local risks to the Rand this week as there is much data due for release. Current account data for the 4th quarter is scheduled for release on Wednesday, and this will give the complete picture as to economic growth for 2013. Following that is the release of mining and manufacturing data on Thursday with Reserve Bank Governor Gill Marcus due to speak on Thursday evening.
International news
The USD strengthened on Friday after non-farm payrolls data came in better than expected. Today’s news from China that growth in the world’s second largest economy has slowed and is now reporting a trade balance deficit, has put pressure back on emerging economies. Reports that tensions have flared up near the Ukraine have added to this pressure and created renewed volatility in the markets.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• O/N JP Trade balance (JPY)
• O/N JP GDP annualised (final)
• 09:30 EZ Sentfix investor confidence index
• 10:15 US Fed’s Plosser speaks
• 16:40 US Fed’s Evans speaks
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