Thursday, 12 December 2013

Rand softens ahead of local inflation data

Trade report 12/12/2013

ZAR outlook

USD/ZAR expected range: 10.3400 – 10.4800

After firming yesterday the ZAR has fallen to its weakest level this week as investors sell off risky assets ahead of the Fed meeting next week and the market awaits the local inflation data due for release today.  The Rand was 0.2% weaker this morning at R10.4140/$.

Local news

Consumer inflation data is expected to slow to 5.3% y/y in November from 5.5% last month.  This will give SARB some breathing room to leave interest rates unchanged as South African households are under pressure, especially due to fuel and administrative tariff hikes.  This is not good news for the strength of the ZAR however, as such low interest rates leave the ZAR exposed.

International news

The Euro is slightly up as news came in that EU finance ministers are close to reaching a deal on the European Banking Union.  This and the uncertainty over whether or not the Fed will start QE tapering at its meeting next week  meant the USD dropped to a 6 week low against the EUR.  US retails sales and jobless claims data are due for release today, which although not overly significant on their own, may or may not add further weight to the increasing speculation of a Fed taper starting next week.

TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):

• 09:30 SA PPI y/y
• 09:00 EZ ECB publishes monthly report
• 10:00 EZ Industrial production (WDA) y/y
• 13:30 US Advance retail sales m/m
• 13:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 13:30 US Import price index y/y
• 15:00 US Business inventories m/m


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