Tuesday, 10 December 2013

ZAR firmer ahead of mining and manufacturing release

Trade report 10/12/2013

ZAR outlook

USD/ZAR expected range: 10.3000 – 10.4500

The ZAR closed on Monday slightly weaker against the dollar but this morning was trading slightly firmer ahead of local mining and manufacturing data due for release today.  The Rand was trading at R10.3700/$ at 06:32 GMT this morning, 0.2% firmer than its close yesterday in New York.  Trading volumes on the USD-ZAR seem to be slowing down as well, as the end of the year approaches.

Local news

Local news focus at the moment is still very much on the passing of Nelson Mandela and his memorial currently taking place.  Today sees the release of Q3 employment data, October mining data and manufacturing production data.  Economists are hoping for stronger than anticipated data, although it is doubtful that this will help the Rand make a strong recovery as the markets are being dominated by talk of the Fed taper.

International news

After a day of relatively light trading yesterday and little in the way of data releases the Pound, Euro and USD were little changed.  Various Fed members yesterday made comments suggesting that a small taper may be on the cards as early as next week at the FOMC’s last meeting of the year, although until this is made official, it is unlikely to cause too much volatility as this thought has been doing the rounds for some weeks already.


TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):

• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R2023 – R900mn; R2030 – R550mn; R209 – R900mn)
• 09:30 SA Non-farm payrolls y/y
• 09:30 SA Mining production y/y
• 11:00 SA Manufacturing production n.s.a y/y
• 09:30 GB Industrial production y/y
• 15:00 US Wholesale inventories


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