Trade report 05/12/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.3500 – 10.5500
The Rand has weakened significantly against the USD as talks increase around the earlier timing of the Fed taper which has investors starting to sell off riskier assets. The Rand is skirting around a 3 week low and at 06:44GMT was at R10.4200/$, very close to its Wednesday close in New York of R10.4474/$
Local news
The large c/a and budget deficit remains a major concern for the ZAR as it leaves the Rand very dependent on international investment. Recently some Fed members have been talking about an earlier than expected start to the taper which leaves the Rand very exposed and one of the worst emerging market performers.
International news
The GBP dropped slightly yesterday after the PMI data released came in weaker than the previous month of October, while the Euro recovered some ground after EZ PMI data beat expectations. The USD is enjoying a period of recovery as recent data releases have indicated a healthier economy, but investors will still be keenly awaiting the important data release of the non-farm payrolls which is due out tomorrow. This is also the last piece of key data due for release before the next FOMC meeting at the end of December.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA SACCI business confidence
• 12:00 GB BoE rate decision
• 12:00 GB BoE asset purchase target
• 12:45 EZ ECB refi rate announcement
• 13:30 EZ ECB Pres. Draghi holds press conference
• 13:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 13:30 US GDP q/q annualized (second reading)
• 13:30 US Personal consumption (second reading)
• 15:00 US Factory orders
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