Trade report 02/12/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1200 – 10.2700
Encouraging PMI data out of China, South Africa’s leading trade partner, has helped the Rand stay steady over the week-end after a volatile week. The Rand was trading at R10.1650/$ at 08:40GMT, 0.26% firmer than its close on Friday. There is data due for release today both locally and internationally which the ZAR will take its direction from.
Local news
Investors will be watching for local data due for release this week. PMI manufacturing and Naamsa vehicle sales data is set to be released today and while analysts expect the data to show improvement, the trend is likely to remain weak. Tomorrows Q3 current account data will be of particular interest as investors will be keen to see how the new methodology affects the current account figure.
International news
PMI data is due out of the major economies today which will shed more light on global growth expectations. While PMI results out of China were stronger than expected, the data still pointed to an economy that is growing only gradually. With interest rate decisions scheduled this week from the BoE and the ECB, as well as nonfarm-payrolls data due out from the US later this week, the markets seem to be starting out the week on a cautious footing.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:00 SA Kagiso PMI
• 09:00 SA Naamsa vehicle sales y/y
• 08:30 EZ ECB’s Constancio, Honoham speak
• 08:55 DE PMI manufacturing (final)
• 09:00 EZ PMI manufacturing (final)
• 09:30 GB PMI manufacturing
• 13:30 US Fed’s Bernanke speaks
• 13:58 US Markit PMI manufacturing (final)
• 15:00 US ISM manufacturing
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