Trade report 29/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1500 – 10.2700
After a volatile week for the Rand the currency is holding steady against the USD this morning. The markets have been quiet with low trading volumes as the USA celebrated Thanksgiving yesterday, allowing the Rand a slight reprieve. The ZAR was little changed from its overnight close this morning and at 06:43GMT was at R10.1855/$.
Local news
South Africa’s twin deficits have left the ZAR exposed to volatile trading and it remains one of the less attractive EM currencies. With this in mind the ZAR will take its direction today from the local trade data that is due for release today. Poor data figures will increase the pressure on the ZAR, but stronger than expected data may allow the ZAR to hold steady.
International news
The US markets are closed today and as a result the markets have been very quiet with low trading volumes. Despite this, USD weakened yesterday against the EUR mostly due to positive inflation data out of Germany, and the EZ business and consumer confidence data released which matched economists forecasts.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 06:00 SA M3 money supply y/y
• 06:00 SA Private Sector credit y/y
• 12:00 SA Government budget balance (ZAR)
• 12:00 SA Trade balance (ZAR)
• US Day after Thanksgiving – early market closures
• 07:00 GB Nationwide house prices nsa y/y
• 07:00 DE Retail sales y/y
• 09:30 GB Net consumer credit (GBP)
• 10:00 EZ Unemployment rate
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