Trade report 31/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.8500 – 9.9900
The ZAR traded softer against the USD on Thursday after the FOMC announcement yesterday as global appetite dipped. The ZAR was at R9.9420/$ at 09:42 GMT this morning but could come under more pressure today with many US and SA data releases scheduled, including trade data for September and producer inflation data.
Local news
Interesting to note is that the ZAR ended the day yesterday as the 2nd worst performing EM currency, behind only the IDR. This highlights the fact that the ZAR struggles to capitalise on periods of lower USD resilience. This is probably mainly due to SA’s large twin deficits, the threat of a ratings downgrade and negative investor sentiment due to recent labour unrest.
International news
The Fed announced yesterday that it plans to continue its $85 billion per month bond buying programme although comments that this is putting a strain on the economy suggest it may start tapering sooner than previously expected, although this is not the general market consensus.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA PPI y/y
• 10:00 SA Switch auction (R500mn of R201 to R186)
• 12:00 SA Trade balance
• 12:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 13:45 US Chicago PMI
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Thursday 31 October 2013
Wednesday 30 October 2013
Rand steady as investors await FOMC result
Trade report 30/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.8100 – 9.9700
After trading slightly weaker against the USD yesterday, the ZAR has steadied this morning and is back to trading at mid-October levels. The Rand was trading at R9.8825/$ at 08:37 this morning and investors expect it to remain trading in a narrow range ahead of the FOMC announcement later on today.
Local news
In local news the SARB released its Financial Stability Review yesterday and has warned of a risk to the ratings outlook as a result of the on-going strike action and a slowing economy. Investors are also weary of the negative sentiment caused by local labour issues in the mining sector, where the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union is threatening a call a strike at Impala Platinum.
International news
In a key US announcement today the FOMC will release its rate decision. “The market expects the Fed to start QE tapering only in March next year, but if the Fed policy statement proves to be more hawkish, we expect the Rand together with other risky assets to weaken and vice versa”, Absa Capital analysts said in a note this morning.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 12:00 SA South African budget (ZAR)
• 11:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 12:15 US ADP employment change
• 12:30 US CPI y/y
• 18:00 US FOMC rate decision
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.8100 – 9.9700
After trading slightly weaker against the USD yesterday, the ZAR has steadied this morning and is back to trading at mid-October levels. The Rand was trading at R9.8825/$ at 08:37 this morning and investors expect it to remain trading in a narrow range ahead of the FOMC announcement later on today.
Local news
In local news the SARB released its Financial Stability Review yesterday and has warned of a risk to the ratings outlook as a result of the on-going strike action and a slowing economy. Investors are also weary of the negative sentiment caused by local labour issues in the mining sector, where the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union is threatening a call a strike at Impala Platinum.
International news
In a key US announcement today the FOMC will release its rate decision. “The market expects the Fed to start QE tapering only in March next year, but if the Fed policy statement proves to be more hawkish, we expect the Rand together with other risky assets to weaken and vice versa”, Absa Capital analysts said in a note this morning.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 12:00 SA South African budget (ZAR)
• 11:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 12:15 US ADP employment change
• 12:30 US CPI y/y
• 18:00 US FOMC rate decision
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Tuesday 29 October 2013
Rand softens ahead of FOMC meeting
Trade report 29/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7900 – 9.9300
The Rand weakened slightly against the dollar overnight as investors are thought to be waiting for results on local data and the outcome of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. The ZAR was 0.34% down this morning, from its close in New York yesterday, at R9.8561/$ at 09:27 GMT.
Local news
Local data released today showed that South Africa’s credit growth slowed to 7.55% y/y in September while money supply increased to 7.03%. A key figure that investors will be interested in and due for release today is the unemployment rate number. News which is a threat to investor sentiment is that SAMCU have announced its members have voted to strike at Impala Platinum, although employers are hopeful that a stoppage can be averted.
International news
There are a number of US data releases scheduled for today, although cautious trading is expected to continue until after tomorrows FOMC meeting where investors will be looking for clues as to when QE tapering could begin.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 06:00 SA M3 money supply y/y
• 06:00 SA Private sector credit y/y
• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R2023-900mn; R2031-550mn; R2037-900mn)
• 09:30 SA Unemployment rate
• 17:00 SA SARB releases Gov. Marcus’ overnight remarks
• 12:30 US PPI y/y
• 12:30 US Advance Retail sales
• 13: 00 US S&P/Case-Shiller house price composite-20 y/y
• 14:00 US Business inventories
• 14:00 US Consumer confidence
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7900 – 9.9300
The Rand weakened slightly against the dollar overnight as investors are thought to be waiting for results on local data and the outcome of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. The ZAR was 0.34% down this morning, from its close in New York yesterday, at R9.8561/$ at 09:27 GMT.
Local news
Local data released today showed that South Africa’s credit growth slowed to 7.55% y/y in September while money supply increased to 7.03%. A key figure that investors will be interested in and due for release today is the unemployment rate number. News which is a threat to investor sentiment is that SAMCU have announced its members have voted to strike at Impala Platinum, although employers are hopeful that a stoppage can be averted.
International news
There are a number of US data releases scheduled for today, although cautious trading is expected to continue until after tomorrows FOMC meeting where investors will be looking for clues as to when QE tapering could begin.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 06:00 SA M3 money supply y/y
• 06:00 SA Private sector credit y/y
• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R2023-900mn; R2031-550mn; R2037-900mn)
• 09:30 SA Unemployment rate
• 17:00 SA SARB releases Gov. Marcus’ overnight remarks
• 12:30 US PPI y/y
• 12:30 US Advance Retail sales
• 13: 00 US S&P/Case-Shiller house price composite-20 y/y
• 14:00 US Business inventories
• 14:00 US Consumer confidence
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Monday 28 October 2013
Rand steady against weaker USD
Trade report 28/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7400 – 9.8600
The Rand continues to trade steadily against the USD ahead of a busy week with many data releases scheduled. The recent unimpressive US non-farm payrolls data adds to the theory that the US will delay QE tapering which is good news for the ZAR. The Rand was at R9.8200/$ at 08:45 this morning, largely unchanged from its close in New York on Friday.
Local news
The recent steady trading of the ZAR vs. the USD is widely thought to be more attributed to a USD on the backfoot as opposed to a strong Rand. It is a busy week locally with many data releases and investors will be keeping a close eye on results of private sector growth, vehicle sales and PMI data.
International news
There are some important US data releases scheduled this week including ADP employment, jobless claims and the ISM manufacturing PMI. The Fed is also scheduled to meet on Wednesday which is always a big event, although it is highly unlikely they will make changes to the current QE policy in place. The more likely scenario is one of a pricing for tapering to begin in 2014 which will benefit emerging markets.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 13:15 US Industrial production
• 14:00 US Pending home sales y/y
• 14:30 US Dallas Fed manufacturing activity
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7400 – 9.8600
The Rand continues to trade steadily against the USD ahead of a busy week with many data releases scheduled. The recent unimpressive US non-farm payrolls data adds to the theory that the US will delay QE tapering which is good news for the ZAR. The Rand was at R9.8200/$ at 08:45 this morning, largely unchanged from its close in New York on Friday.
Local news
The recent steady trading of the ZAR vs. the USD is widely thought to be more attributed to a USD on the backfoot as opposed to a strong Rand. It is a busy week locally with many data releases and investors will be keeping a close eye on results of private sector growth, vehicle sales and PMI data.
International news
There are some important US data releases scheduled this week including ADP employment, jobless claims and the ISM manufacturing PMI. The Fed is also scheduled to meet on Wednesday which is always a big event, although it is highly unlikely they will make changes to the current QE policy in place. The more likely scenario is one of a pricing for tapering to begin in 2014 which will benefit emerging markets.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 13:15 US Industrial production
• 14:00 US Pending home sales y/y
• 14:30 US Dallas Fed manufacturing activity
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Friday 25 October 2013
ZAR under pressure due to mining strike fears
Trade report 25/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7200 – 9.8200
General feeling in the markets is that the FED will delay QE tapering and this is helping the ZAR which firmed against the USD yesterday after the jitters over the mini-budget calmed down. The Rand was 0.3% up on the USD from Wednesdays close at R9.97725/$ although today talks of mining strikes are weighing on the local currency.
Local news
The ZAR had a brief boost after the release of the mini-budget but is now under pressure due to fears of another bout of mining strikes. AMCU may go on strike after wage talks have failed to reach an agreement. The next local data release will be on Tuesday when unemployment figures and private sector borrowing figures will be released.
International news
Emerging markets are currently benefitting from the general feeling by investors that the US Federal Reserve Bank will delay QE tapering. This is helping the ZAR although of the EM’s SA remains one of the worst performing currencies, most likely due to its high budget and current account deficit.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 08:30 GB GDP y/y (advance)
• 12:30 US Durable goods orders
• 13:55 US Michigan consumer confidence
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7200 – 9.8200
General feeling in the markets is that the FED will delay QE tapering and this is helping the ZAR which firmed against the USD yesterday after the jitters over the mini-budget calmed down. The Rand was 0.3% up on the USD from Wednesdays close at R9.97725/$ although today talks of mining strikes are weighing on the local currency.
Local news
The ZAR had a brief boost after the release of the mini-budget but is now under pressure due to fears of another bout of mining strikes. AMCU may go on strike after wage talks have failed to reach an agreement. The next local data release will be on Tuesday when unemployment figures and private sector borrowing figures will be released.
International news
Emerging markets are currently benefitting from the general feeling by investors that the US Federal Reserve Bank will delay QE tapering. This is helping the ZAR although of the EM’s SA remains one of the worst performing currencies, most likely due to its high budget and current account deficit.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 08:30 GB GDP y/y (advance)
• 12:30 US Durable goods orders
• 13:55 US Michigan consumer confidence
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Wednesday 23 October 2013
Rand steady ahead of mini-budget statement
Trade report 23/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7000 – 9.8500
The ZAR rallied yesterday and achieved a one month high against the USD after the US nonfarm payrolls data release which came in softer than expected. The ZAR was slightly weaker this morning and was trading at R9.7750/$ at 08:47GMT, 0.26% down from its close in New York yesterday.
Local news
The mini-budget statement by Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan this afternoon is the main topic in local news today as investors are hoping to see progress in SA addressing its current account deficit. Economists are hopeful that the CPI index will have slowed to 6% y/y in September from 6.4% in August due to lower food and fuel prices. This would put the index back in the target 3 – 6% range and would likely boost the ZAR.
International news
The soft US nonfarm payrolls data released yesterday has added to the argument that the Federal Reserve Bank will delay the start of QE tapering. This put the USD under pressure yesterday and emerging markets including the ZAR enjoyed a day of strong gains.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 08:00 SA CPI y/y
• 12:00 SA Fin Min Gordhan presents Medium-Term budget
• 08:30 GB BoE releases MPC minutes
• 11:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 12:30 US Import price index y/y
• 13:00 US House price index m/m
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7000 – 9.8500
The ZAR rallied yesterday and achieved a one month high against the USD after the US nonfarm payrolls data release which came in softer than expected. The ZAR was slightly weaker this morning and was trading at R9.7750/$ at 08:47GMT, 0.26% down from its close in New York yesterday.
Local news
The mini-budget statement by Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan this afternoon is the main topic in local news today as investors are hoping to see progress in SA addressing its current account deficit. Economists are hopeful that the CPI index will have slowed to 6% y/y in September from 6.4% in August due to lower food and fuel prices. This would put the index back in the target 3 – 6% range and would likely boost the ZAR.
International news
The soft US nonfarm payrolls data released yesterday has added to the argument that the Federal Reserve Bank will delay the start of QE tapering. This put the USD under pressure yesterday and emerging markets including the ZAR enjoyed a day of strong gains.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 08:00 SA CPI y/y
• 12:00 SA Fin Min Gordhan presents Medium-Term budget
• 08:30 GB BoE releases MPC minutes
• 11:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 12:30 US Import price index y/y
• 13:00 US House price index m/m
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Tuesday 22 October 2013
Rand trading in narrow range ahead of US data release
The ZAR is still trading in the 9.80 – 9.90 bandwidth and traders expect it to maintain this ahead of the first postponed US data release later today. The ZAR was barely changed from its overnight close in New York and was at R9.8440/$ at 08:50GMT this morning.
Local news
The main talk in the local markets at the moment are the concerns over the this week’s mini-budget release where it is expected Finance Minister Gordhan will reveal a deterioration in growth expectations and as a result a widening current account deficit. This may induce a further credit ratings downgrade which would add further pressure to the Rand.
International news
The release of the key US non-farm payroll should give an idea as to the strength and resilience of the US economy although markets may not react as they normally would given it is a pre-government shut-down release. A positive data release will be good news for the USD but may keep the ZAR on the defensive as it battles local issues as well.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R186 – R1.2bn, R2030 – 350mn, R2037 – 800mn)
• 07: 00 SA Leading Indicator
• 08:30 GB Public sector net borrowing (GBP)
• 12:30 US Unemployment rate
• 12:30 US Change in non-farm payrolls
• 14:00 US Richmond Fed manufacturing index
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Monday 21 October 2013
Rand maintains recent gains
Trade report 21/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.6500 – 9.8500
The Rand remained steady over the week-end after the intense week in the markets and the question now is whether or not the ZAR can maintain this into the medium-term. The ZAR was trading at R9.7800/$ at 06:32GMT, in line with the close of markets in New York on Friday evening.
Local news
This week see’s Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan presenting the budget policy statement and investors will be hoping to see progress in South Africa’s attempt to reduce its twin budget and current account deficits, although there is a likelihood that it will also flag some risks pertaining to SA. Statistics SA are also due to release consumer inflation data although this is not likely to impact heavily on the ZAR.
International news
Economic data postponed due to US crisis over the past few weeks will most likely be released in the coming week although dates have not been set for all of them yet. Nonfarm payrolls and housing data will be of key interest as investors watch for clues to the Feds forthcoming policy outlook with regards to QE tapering.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 14:00 US Existing home sales
• tbc US Wholesale sales m/m
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.6500 – 9.8500
The Rand remained steady over the week-end after the intense week in the markets and the question now is whether or not the ZAR can maintain this into the medium-term. The ZAR was trading at R9.7800/$ at 06:32GMT, in line with the close of markets in New York on Friday evening.
Local news
This week see’s Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan presenting the budget policy statement and investors will be hoping to see progress in South Africa’s attempt to reduce its twin budget and current account deficits, although there is a likelihood that it will also flag some risks pertaining to SA. Statistics SA are also due to release consumer inflation data although this is not likely to impact heavily on the ZAR.
International news
Economic data postponed due to US crisis over the past few weeks will most likely be released in the coming week although dates have not been set for all of them yet. Nonfarm payrolls and housing data will be of key interest as investors watch for clues to the Feds forthcoming policy outlook with regards to QE tapering.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 14:00 US Existing home sales
• tbc US Wholesale sales m/m
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Friday 18 October 2013
Rand holding firm near one month high
Trade report 18/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7590 – 9.9000
The USD has failed to rebound despite the resolution of the US debt ceiling issue, as the possibility of QE tapering being pushed out to December at the earliest is high, which may put strain on the USD. The Rand traded near a one month high this morning and at 06:08GMT was at R9.8200/$, in line with its close in New York on Thursday.
Local news
The majority of EM currencies have enjoyed a week of firm trading, albeit low volumes, against the USD as the US has battled budget issues. The ZAR has been more of a middle-of-the-road performer as it is held back by local issues such as its wide c/a balance and the constant threat of strike action.
International news
General focus in the markets has now shifted to the increasing probability that the Fed will delay QE tapering until December at the earliest as the US recovers from the government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis which has left the economy shaken. It is also worth noting that China’s GDP data for Q3 came in stronger at 7.8% compared to 7.5% in Q2 which may be good news for the ZAR in the months ahead as it may support the struggling export industry.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 02:00 CN Real GDP y/y
• 02:00 CN Industrial production YTD y/y
• 12:00 US Fed’s Lacker speaks
• 14:00 US Leading indicators
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7590 – 9.9000
The USD has failed to rebound despite the resolution of the US debt ceiling issue, as the possibility of QE tapering being pushed out to December at the earliest is high, which may put strain on the USD. The Rand traded near a one month high this morning and at 06:08GMT was at R9.8200/$, in line with its close in New York on Thursday.
Local news
The majority of EM currencies have enjoyed a week of firm trading, albeit low volumes, against the USD as the US has battled budget issues. The ZAR has been more of a middle-of-the-road performer as it is held back by local issues such as its wide c/a balance and the constant threat of strike action.
International news
General focus in the markets has now shifted to the increasing probability that the Fed will delay QE tapering until December at the earliest as the US recovers from the government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis which has left the economy shaken. It is also worth noting that China’s GDP data for Q3 came in stronger at 7.8% compared to 7.5% in Q2 which may be good news for the ZAR in the months ahead as it may support the struggling export industry.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 02:00 CN Real GDP y/y
• 02:00 CN Industrial production YTD y/y
• 12:00 US Fed’s Lacker speaks
• 14:00 US Leading indicators
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Thursday 17 October 2013
ZAR holding firm after US deal reached
Trade report 17/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7800 – 9.9300
The news that the US Congress has reached a deal to extend the debt ceiling and reopen the government has been welcomed by the markets as US stocks have rallied overnight and EM sentiment has remained buoyant. The Rand was only slightly softer at R9.8650/$ this morning and 0.18% up against the Euro to R13.3169/EUR.
Local news
The Rand hit near 3-week highs yesterday and held firm this morning after the news that the US has made a deal in the eleventh hour to reopen the government and avoid an economic default. Investors however, are not confident that this will be sustained into the medium-term as the ZAR remains vulnerable due to it’s wide c/a balance and the ever present threat of strike action.
International news
Now that the US crisis is over focus is likely to shift back to talk on the likelihood of the Fed holding off on QE tapering especially with the uncertainty on the government budget as the current agreement is only a temporary one. This will be good news from the ZAR and all EM currencies.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• SA Switch auction cancelled
• 08:30 GB Retail sales excluding auto fuel y/y
• 11:45 US Fed’s Fisher speaks
• 12:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 14:00 US Philadelphia Fed index
• 16:45 US Fed’s Evans speaks on the economy
• 16:45 US Fed’s George speaks on the economy
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7800 – 9.9300
The news that the US Congress has reached a deal to extend the debt ceiling and reopen the government has been welcomed by the markets as US stocks have rallied overnight and EM sentiment has remained buoyant. The Rand was only slightly softer at R9.8650/$ this morning and 0.18% up against the Euro to R13.3169/EUR.
Local news
The Rand hit near 3-week highs yesterday and held firm this morning after the news that the US has made a deal in the eleventh hour to reopen the government and avoid an economic default. Investors however, are not confident that this will be sustained into the medium-term as the ZAR remains vulnerable due to it’s wide c/a balance and the ever present threat of strike action.
International news
Now that the US crisis is over focus is likely to shift back to talk on the likelihood of the Fed holding off on QE tapering especially with the uncertainty on the government budget as the current agreement is only a temporary one. This will be good news from the ZAR and all EM currencies.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• SA Switch auction cancelled
• 08:30 GB Retail sales excluding auto fuel y/y
• 11:45 US Fed’s Fisher speaks
• 12:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 14:00 US Philadelphia Fed index
• 16:45 US Fed’s Evans speaks on the economy
• 16:45 US Fed’s George speaks on the economy
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Wednesday 16 October 2013
Rand steady as US battles debt crisis
Trade report 16/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.9000 – 10.0600
Contrary to speculation that a resolution of the US budget crisis was imminent, talks between politicians broke down yesterday. The lack of a plan to avoid a US default has investors nervous and has put pressure back on the USD after it strengthened slightly yesterday. The ZAR was trading 0.3% up this morning at R9.9520/$.
Local news
The threat of a US default continues to drive the markets, which means local news is overshadowed at the moment. It is worth noting however that domestic retail sales data is due out today and economists expect growth to have slowed to 1.2% y/y from 2.8% in July as consumer’s battle rising prices and rising debt. NUMSA and RMI have also reached an agreement bringing an end to the automotive sector strike.
International news
Investors are nervous of a US default which is reflected in the markets as trading volumes are low. Fitch has put the US credit rating on negative watch which is indicative of the “urgency with which Congress should act” to reduce default risk. EM currencies are expected to trade in a narrow range until the US politicians have come to an agreement, the government reopens and the debt ceiling crisis is over.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 11:00 SA Retail sales constant y/y
• 08:30 GB ILO unemployment rate (3mths)
• 11:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 14:00 US NAHB Housing market index
• 18:00 US Fed releases Beige Book
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.9000 – 10.0600
Contrary to speculation that a resolution of the US budget crisis was imminent, talks between politicians broke down yesterday. The lack of a plan to avoid a US default has investors nervous and has put pressure back on the USD after it strengthened slightly yesterday. The ZAR was trading 0.3% up this morning at R9.9520/$.
Local news
The threat of a US default continues to drive the markets, which means local news is overshadowed at the moment. It is worth noting however that domestic retail sales data is due out today and economists expect growth to have slowed to 1.2% y/y from 2.8% in July as consumer’s battle rising prices and rising debt. NUMSA and RMI have also reached an agreement bringing an end to the automotive sector strike.
International news
Investors are nervous of a US default which is reflected in the markets as trading volumes are low. Fitch has put the US credit rating on negative watch which is indicative of the “urgency with which Congress should act” to reduce default risk. EM currencies are expected to trade in a narrow range until the US politicians have come to an agreement, the government reopens and the debt ceiling crisis is over.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 11:00 SA Retail sales constant y/y
• 08:30 GB ILO unemployment rate (3mths)
• 11:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 14:00 US NAHB Housing market index
• 18:00 US Fed releases Beige Book
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Tuesday 15 October 2013
US close to averting debt ceiling crisis
Trade report 15/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.8200 – 9.9600
The US Senate is close to confirming a deal which will reopen the government and avert the immediate debt ceiling crisis. This news has allowed the USD to open the day slightly stronger although trading volumes are still very low. The ZAR was trading at R9.9230/$ in early morning trading after closing at R9.9150/$ yesterday in New York.
Local news
The markets continue to be driven by the US government shutdown and debt ceiling issue, although once the crisis is over the ZAR remains one of the more vulnerable EM currencies due to its current account deficit of nearly 6% of GDP.
International news
The US cannot afford any more delays in the budget crisis and the deal that US politicians are hoping to agree on will reopen the government until January and raise the debt ceiling until early February. Although only a temporary measure it would avoid the risk of a US default and lessen the pressure exerted on the USD in recent weeks.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R186 – 900mn; R213 – 900mn; R2037 – 550mn)
• 08:30 GB PPI output core y/y n.s.a
• 08:30 GB CPI y/y
• 12:30 US Empire manufacturing
• 14:00 US Fed’s Dudley speaks
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.8200 – 9.9600
The US Senate is close to confirming a deal which will reopen the government and avert the immediate debt ceiling crisis. This news has allowed the USD to open the day slightly stronger although trading volumes are still very low. The ZAR was trading at R9.9230/$ in early morning trading after closing at R9.9150/$ yesterday in New York.
Local news
The markets continue to be driven by the US government shutdown and debt ceiling issue, although once the crisis is over the ZAR remains one of the more vulnerable EM currencies due to its current account deficit of nearly 6% of GDP.
International news
The US cannot afford any more delays in the budget crisis and the deal that US politicians are hoping to agree on will reopen the government until January and raise the debt ceiling until early February. Although only a temporary measure it would avoid the risk of a US default and lessen the pressure exerted on the USD in recent weeks.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R186 – 900mn; R213 – 900mn; R2037 – 550mn)
• 08:30 GB PPI output core y/y n.s.a
• 08:30 GB CPI y/y
• 12:30 US Empire manufacturing
• 14:00 US Fed’s Dudley speaks
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Monday 14 October 2013
ZAR trading in narrow range as US shut-down continues.
Trade report 14/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.8300 – 9.9600
Despite hints last week of a temporary resolution to the budget stalemate, negotiations are still ongoing, as Senate Majority Leader Reid has spoken of “productive conversation”. With the 17th October approaching investors would prefer more definite evidence of progress and it may be a tense week ahead for the markets. The ZAR is still trading in a narrow range and this morning was around R9.9250/$.
Local news
Local news remains overshadowed by the US budget impasse and debt ceiling issue. There are also few data releases this week to give the Rand direction which means that it will takes its clues from overseas markets, although the ZAR remains one of the riskier EM currencies. SA retail sales data is due out this week which should shed some light on domestic growth.
International news
Markets are quieter today as Japan and Hong Kong enjoy a public holiday and the US Treasury market is closed until tomorrow. The on-going US government shut down and debt ceiling issue have taken their toll on the USD. Many US data releases have also been indefinitely postponed and with the announcement of Janet Yellen as Head of the Federal Reserve Bank this hints towards a more QE supportive stance. Combined, these factors have shielded the EM currencies over the past few weeks.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• US Market holiday – Columbus Day (Some exchanges open)
• JP Market holiday – Health Sports Day
• 01:30 CN CPI y/y
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.8300 – 9.9600
Despite hints last week of a temporary resolution to the budget stalemate, negotiations are still ongoing, as Senate Majority Leader Reid has spoken of “productive conversation”. With the 17th October approaching investors would prefer more definite evidence of progress and it may be a tense week ahead for the markets. The ZAR is still trading in a narrow range and this morning was around R9.9250/$.
Local news
Local news remains overshadowed by the US budget impasse and debt ceiling issue. There are also few data releases this week to give the Rand direction which means that it will takes its clues from overseas markets, although the ZAR remains one of the riskier EM currencies. SA retail sales data is due out this week which should shed some light on domestic growth.
International news
Markets are quieter today as Japan and Hong Kong enjoy a public holiday and the US Treasury market is closed until tomorrow. The on-going US government shut down and debt ceiling issue have taken their toll on the USD. Many US data releases have also been indefinitely postponed and with the announcement of Janet Yellen as Head of the Federal Reserve Bank this hints towards a more QE supportive stance. Combined, these factors have shielded the EM currencies over the past few weeks.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• US Market holiday – Columbus Day (Some exchanges open)
• JP Market holiday – Health Sports Day
• 01:30 CN CPI y/y
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Friday 11 October 2013
ZAR firms on US debt hopes and Amplats announcement
Trade report 11/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.8100 – 9.9600
Markets in general have responded positively to a proposal by US Republicans to extend the government borrowing date by 6 weeks. There is no guarantee that this proposal will be passed but the markets have taken it as a positive sign to a resolution being reached and reacted accordingly. The ZAR was trading 0.3% firmer this morning at R9.8760/$.
Local news
Helping the ZAR achieve its near 3 week-high against the USD is the news that Anglo American Platinum announced that their miners in South Africa have started returning to work. The company made a deal with the union bringing the near 2 week strike over job cuts to an end. SA data released yesterday also revealed that August manufacturing production increased by 0.2% but mining production expanded by 2.1% y/y which is encouraging.
International news
The news that US politicians may be close to reaching a deal, even a temporary deal in the debt ceiling debacle, will be a relief to the markets. A temporary deal will mean uncertainty again in a few weeks’ time but for the moment the markets should calm down, especially as data releases from the US have mostly been postponed, implying it will be a quiet day ahead.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 12:30 US PPI y/y (postponed)
• 12:30 US Advance retail sales m/m (postponed)
• 13:55 US Michigan consumer confidence (preliminary)
• 14:00 US Business inventories (postponed)
• 15:00 US Feds Powell speaks on monetary policy
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.8100 – 9.9600
Markets in general have responded positively to a proposal by US Republicans to extend the government borrowing date by 6 weeks. There is no guarantee that this proposal will be passed but the markets have taken it as a positive sign to a resolution being reached and reacted accordingly. The ZAR was trading 0.3% firmer this morning at R9.8760/$.
Local news
Helping the ZAR achieve its near 3 week-high against the USD is the news that Anglo American Platinum announced that their miners in South Africa have started returning to work. The company made a deal with the union bringing the near 2 week strike over job cuts to an end. SA data released yesterday also revealed that August manufacturing production increased by 0.2% but mining production expanded by 2.1% y/y which is encouraging.
International news
The news that US politicians may be close to reaching a deal, even a temporary deal in the debt ceiling debacle, will be a relief to the markets. A temporary deal will mean uncertainty again in a few weeks’ time but for the moment the markets should calm down, especially as data releases from the US have mostly been postponed, implying it will be a quiet day ahead.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 12:30 US PPI y/y (postponed)
• 12:30 US Advance retail sales m/m (postponed)
• 13:55 US Michigan consumer confidence (preliminary)
• 14:00 US Business inventories (postponed)
• 15:00 US Feds Powell speaks on monetary policy
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Thursday 10 October 2013
Factory data release weighs on Rand
Trade report 10/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.92 – 10.0800
The ZAR has enjoyed a reprieve in the last few days. The USD has struggled during the government shutdown as US leaders failed to come to a budget agreement. However talk is beginning to circulate of a compromise between US Congressional leaders, which is helping the USD come back. The ZAR was at R9.9825/$ at 07:42 this morning, 0.2% down from its close in New York yesterday.
Local news
The Rand could come under more pressure today as mining and manufacturing production data is due to be released. The effect of the recent strikes may become a reality as manufacturing production is expected to have declined in August, which will add to negative investor sentiment.
International news
The USD is showing signs of recovery as President Obama invited Republicans to the White House to try and reach a compromise in the budget deadlock. Investors are hoping for a resolution by the end of the week, and if not the markets are expected to be very edgy next week as the date for the debt ceiling of 17th October approaches.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Switch auction
• 09:30 SA Mining production y/y
• 11:00 SA Manufacturing production n.s.a y/y
• 11:00 GB BoE rate announcement
• 11:00 GB BoE asset purchase target (GBP)
• 12:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 12:30 US Import price index y/y (postponed)
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.92 – 10.0800
The ZAR has enjoyed a reprieve in the last few days. The USD has struggled during the government shutdown as US leaders failed to come to a budget agreement. However talk is beginning to circulate of a compromise between US Congressional leaders, which is helping the USD come back. The ZAR was at R9.9825/$ at 07:42 this morning, 0.2% down from its close in New York yesterday.
Local news
The Rand could come under more pressure today as mining and manufacturing production data is due to be released. The effect of the recent strikes may become a reality as manufacturing production is expected to have declined in August, which will add to negative investor sentiment.
International news
The USD is showing signs of recovery as President Obama invited Republicans to the White House to try and reach a compromise in the budget deadlock. Investors are hoping for a resolution by the end of the week, and if not the markets are expected to be very edgy next week as the date for the debt ceiling of 17th October approaches.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Switch auction
• 09:30 SA Mining production y/y
• 11:00 SA Manufacturing production n.s.a y/y
• 11:00 GB BoE rate announcement
• 11:00 GB BoE asset purchase target (GBP)
• 12:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 12:30 US Import price index y/y (postponed)
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Wednesday 9 October 2013
Market tense as Rand stays firm
Trade report 09/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.91 – 10.0600
The ZAR has managed to firm up in the last couple of days and was trading at R9.96/$ at 09:05 this morning, not far off its close in New York yesterday. The markets remain very subdued however as investors wait to hear updates on the US government shut down and the approaching debt ceiling.
Local news
Despite SA’s current obstacles such as the on-going strike issue and widening c/a deficit, local news is being mostly overshadowed by the US government shutdown which is still dragging on. Traders expect the ZAR to continue trading in a narrow range until an agreement in the US budget deadlock is reached and the government reopens.
International news
The deadline for lawmakers to raise the US borrowing limit is looming and as the date approaches it will have an increasing effect on the markets which means SA and other Ems are increasingly vulnerable. Traders are also waiting for confirmation of Janet Yellen as the next head of the Federal Reserve. She is seen as a dovish figurehead and this raises speculation that QE tapering may be held off for a while longer.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 08:30 GB Industrial production y/y
• 08:30 GB Visible trade balance (GBP)
• 11:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 14:00 US Wholesale inventories (postponed)
• 14:00 US Wholesale sales (postponed)
• 18:00 US Fed Releases Minutes from September 17-18 FOMC Meeting
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.91 – 10.0600
The ZAR has managed to firm up in the last couple of days and was trading at R9.96/$ at 09:05 this morning, not far off its close in New York yesterday. The markets remain very subdued however as investors wait to hear updates on the US government shut down and the approaching debt ceiling.
Local news
Despite SA’s current obstacles such as the on-going strike issue and widening c/a deficit, local news is being mostly overshadowed by the US government shutdown which is still dragging on. Traders expect the ZAR to continue trading in a narrow range until an agreement in the US budget deadlock is reached and the government reopens.
International news
The deadline for lawmakers to raise the US borrowing limit is looming and as the date approaches it will have an increasing effect on the markets which means SA and other Ems are increasingly vulnerable. Traders are also waiting for confirmation of Janet Yellen as the next head of the Federal Reserve. She is seen as a dovish figurehead and this raises speculation that QE tapering may be held off for a while longer.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 08:30 GB Industrial production y/y
• 08:30 GB Visible trade balance (GBP)
• 11:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 14:00 US Wholesale inventories (postponed)
• 14:00 US Wholesale sales (postponed)
• 18:00 US Fed Releases Minutes from September 17-18 FOMC Meeting
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Tuesday 8 October 2013
Rand stays firm amid US goverment shutdown
Trade report 08/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.920 – 10.0700
The ZAR strengthened from overnight trading figures as the USD continues to struggle in a market consumed with the US partial government shutdown. The ZAR was trading at R9.9950/$ at 06:51GMT which is 0.1% up from its close in New York on Monday evening. Reuters data reveals that USD-ZAR volumes fell to multi-month lows yesterday mainly due to the continued US government deadlock and the approaching 17th October debt ceiling date.
Local news
The struggling USD has helped the ZAR stay firm over the last week despite on-going strike action and SA’s wide current account deficit. Pravin Gordhan has been quoted as saying there is a “heightened sense of anxiety” among the world’s investors and policy makers over the approaching US debt ceiling and warned that emerging economies need to make sure of their fiscal credibility and to take steps to address vulnerabilities such as high current account deficits.
International news
As the US government crisis continues the likelihood of further data releases being postponed increases, which leaves traders with little indication as to the consumer environment although analysts are now fairly confident the FED will hold back on QE tapering until the new year, which may offer short term relief to EMs.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Bond auction
• 12:30 US Trade balance (USD) (Likely postponed)
• 16:25 US Fed’s Pianalto speaks on economy
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.920 – 10.0700
The ZAR strengthened from overnight trading figures as the USD continues to struggle in a market consumed with the US partial government shutdown. The ZAR was trading at R9.9950/$ at 06:51GMT which is 0.1% up from its close in New York on Monday evening. Reuters data reveals that USD-ZAR volumes fell to multi-month lows yesterday mainly due to the continued US government deadlock and the approaching 17th October debt ceiling date.
Local news
The struggling USD has helped the ZAR stay firm over the last week despite on-going strike action and SA’s wide current account deficit. Pravin Gordhan has been quoted as saying there is a “heightened sense of anxiety” among the world’s investors and policy makers over the approaching US debt ceiling and warned that emerging economies need to make sure of their fiscal credibility and to take steps to address vulnerabilities such as high current account deficits.
International news
As the US government crisis continues the likelihood of further data releases being postponed increases, which leaves traders with little indication as to the consumer environment although analysts are now fairly confident the FED will hold back on QE tapering until the new year, which may offer short term relief to EMs.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Bond auction
• 12:30 US Trade balance (USD) (Likely postponed)
• 16:25 US Fed’s Pianalto speaks on economy
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Monday 7 October 2013
ZAR range-bound as US debate continues
Trade report 07/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.90 – 10.0500
The main talk in the markets remains the partial government shut-down as Republicans and Democrats failed to come to an agreement by the end of last week. The ZAR weakened slightly this morning to R10.050/$ but is likely to remain range-bound as long as the US budget impasse continues.
Local news
Good news for the ZAR is the news that the NUM has ended its 4-week strike. This strike is reported to have cost the industry $2.0bn in lost output and had a severe impact on local Q3 GDP stats. The strikes in general will also no doubt have more negative implications further down the line as companies such as BMW indicate that they will no longer consider expansion in SA due to the disruptive labour climate.
International news
The US budget stalemate has caused data releases to be postponed and has raised doubts about the timing of the tapering of the Federal Reserve’s bond buying programme. The has helped the ZAR stay firm and it is likely to continue to trade in a narrow range until the US stalemate issue is resolved.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 06:00 SA Net reserves (USD)
• 19:00 US Consumer Credit (USD)
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.90 – 10.0500
The main talk in the markets remains the partial government shut-down as Republicans and Democrats failed to come to an agreement by the end of last week. The ZAR weakened slightly this morning to R10.050/$ but is likely to remain range-bound as long as the US budget impasse continues.
Local news
Good news for the ZAR is the news that the NUM has ended its 4-week strike. This strike is reported to have cost the industry $2.0bn in lost output and had a severe impact on local Q3 GDP stats. The strikes in general will also no doubt have more negative implications further down the line as companies such as BMW indicate that they will no longer consider expansion in SA due to the disruptive labour climate.
International news
The US budget stalemate has caused data releases to be postponed and has raised doubts about the timing of the tapering of the Federal Reserve’s bond buying programme. The has helped the ZAR stay firm and it is likely to continue to trade in a narrow range until the US stalemate issue is resolved.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 06:00 SA Net reserves (USD)
• 19:00 US Consumer Credit (USD)
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Friday 4 October 2013
ZAR fails to capitalise on US Government shutdown
Trade report 04/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.9800 – 10.1000
The ZAR softened by nearly 1% to the USD on Thursday afternoon and this morning has managed to firm up slightly. It has not been able to capitalize on the US budget crisis as investors worry that an on-going government shut-down will put pressure on the global economy. At 08:51am the Rand was trading at R10.00/$. 0.3% up from its close in New York on Thursday.
Local news
South Africa’s on-going strike action and widening current account deficit continue to hold back the ZAR. Automotive parts workers have rejected the latest wage offer which means production of vehicles remains at a standstill. A spokesperson for BMW has been quoted as saying that the company will stop expansion in South Africa following disruptive strikes in the sector. Toyota, VW and Daimler have also been affected by the strikes.
International news
US payrolls data was due for release today which would normally be an indicator to the markets of what the FEDs decision will be regarding QE tapering. The on-going government shutdown means this release has been postponed which will likely mean a quiet end to what has been a volatile week in the markets.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 12:30 US Fed’s Fisher speaks
• 12:30 US Nonfarm payrolls (Postponed)
• 12:30 US Unemployment rate (Postponed)
• 13:15 US Fed’s Dudley speaks
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.9800 – 10.1000
The ZAR softened by nearly 1% to the USD on Thursday afternoon and this morning has managed to firm up slightly. It has not been able to capitalize on the US budget crisis as investors worry that an on-going government shut-down will put pressure on the global economy. At 08:51am the Rand was trading at R10.00/$. 0.3% up from its close in New York on Thursday.
Local news
South Africa’s on-going strike action and widening current account deficit continue to hold back the ZAR. Automotive parts workers have rejected the latest wage offer which means production of vehicles remains at a standstill. A spokesperson for BMW has been quoted as saying that the company will stop expansion in South Africa following disruptive strikes in the sector. Toyota, VW and Daimler have also been affected by the strikes.
International news
US payrolls data was due for release today which would normally be an indicator to the markets of what the FEDs decision will be regarding QE tapering. The on-going government shutdown means this release has been postponed which will likely mean a quiet end to what has been a volatile week in the markets.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 12:30 US Fed’s Fisher speaks
• 12:30 US Nonfarm payrolls (Postponed)
• 12:30 US Unemployment rate (Postponed)
• 13:15 US Fed’s Dudley speaks
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Thursday 3 October 2013
ZAR performance lacking
Trade report 03/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.9300 – 10.1000
The Rand managed to stay steady yesterday and outperform most of its EM peers. But considering how the dollar index has fallen with the on-going budget crisis, the ZARs performance remains lacking. The Rand was trading at R10.0100 at 08:37 this morning, 0.2% down from its close in New York yesterday.
Local news
The ZAR has made a recent habit of either outperforming or underperforming its EM peers on a daily basis. This points to a volatile currency which is battling a wide current account deficit, and questions are now being asked about the likelihood of another ratings downgrade as yesterday another commodity-centred EM, Brazil, was downgraded from a positive to a stable outlook.
International news
Trading is likely to be autious today ahead of the US non-farm payrolls data due to be released tomorrow, although with disruptions caused by the US government shutdown this release may be delayed. Added to this US growth outlook remains under pressure as long as the government is at a standstill.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Switch auction
• 09:30 SA SACCI business confidence index
• 08:30 GB PMI services
• 12:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 12:30 US Factory orders y/y (Postponed)
• 14:00 US ISM non-manufacturing composite
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.9300 – 10.1000
The Rand managed to stay steady yesterday and outperform most of its EM peers. But considering how the dollar index has fallen with the on-going budget crisis, the ZARs performance remains lacking. The Rand was trading at R10.0100 at 08:37 this morning, 0.2% down from its close in New York yesterday.
Local news
The ZAR has made a recent habit of either outperforming or underperforming its EM peers on a daily basis. This points to a volatile currency which is battling a wide current account deficit, and questions are now being asked about the likelihood of another ratings downgrade as yesterday another commodity-centred EM, Brazil, was downgraded from a positive to a stable outlook.
International news
Trading is likely to be autious today ahead of the US non-farm payrolls data due to be released tomorrow, although with disruptions caused by the US government shutdown this release may be delayed. Added to this US growth outlook remains under pressure as long as the government is at a standstill.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Switch auction
• 09:30 SA SACCI business confidence index
• 08:30 GB PMI services
• 12:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 12:30 US Factory orders y/y (Postponed)
• 14:00 US ISM non-manufacturing composite
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Wednesday 2 October 2013
Rand steady as USD stabilises
Trade report 02/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.0600 – 10.2200
The USD has been under pressure this week due to the partial government shutdown, but late yesterday it managed to strengthen significantly as US ISM manufacturing data came in very strong at its best level since March 2011. The ZAR opened at R10.1450/$ in trading this morning, not far off its close in New York last night.
Local news
The ZAR has not been able to sustain its recent comeback against the USD as local PMI manufacturing data released yesterday was disappointing. The PMI index fell to an 8-month low of 49.1 as a strike in the auto-sector hurt the sales of new vehicles. The fact that not all EM currencies have softened to the USD points towards a ZAR under-performance.
International news
The strong US PMI data released yesterday would normally be another indicator to the markets that the FED will begin QE tapering sooner rather than later. However, the partial government shutdown due to inconclusive budget debates is an obstacle that will likely need to be resolved before traders are confident that this is the case.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 08:30 GB PMI construction
• 11:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 12:15 US ADP employment change
• 13:45 US ISM New York
• 16:00 US Fed’s Rosengren speaks
• 19:20 US Fed’s Bullard, Bernanke speaks on community banks
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.0600 – 10.2200
The USD has been under pressure this week due to the partial government shutdown, but late yesterday it managed to strengthen significantly as US ISM manufacturing data came in very strong at its best level since March 2011. The ZAR opened at R10.1450/$ in trading this morning, not far off its close in New York last night.
Local news
The ZAR has not been able to sustain its recent comeback against the USD as local PMI manufacturing data released yesterday was disappointing. The PMI index fell to an 8-month low of 49.1 as a strike in the auto-sector hurt the sales of new vehicles. The fact that not all EM currencies have softened to the USD points towards a ZAR under-performance.
International news
The strong US PMI data released yesterday would normally be another indicator to the markets that the FED will begin QE tapering sooner rather than later. However, the partial government shutdown due to inconclusive budget debates is an obstacle that will likely need to be resolved before traders are confident that this is the case.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 08:30 GB PMI construction
• 11:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 12:15 US ADP employment change
• 13:45 US ISM New York
• 16:00 US Fed’s Rosengren speaks
• 19:20 US Fed’s Bullard, Bernanke speaks on community banks
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Tuesday 1 October 2013
Rand benefits off struggling dollar
Trade report 01/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.9400 – 10.1000
The ZAR has managed to firm up against that USD after a loss in US investor confidence as the US government failed to reach a decision in budget debates which means a partial government shutdown from today. The Rand was trading at R9.9650/$ at 08:59 this morning, 068% up from its close in New York yesterday.
Local news
South Africa’s trade deficit for the month of August has unexpectedly widened to 19.05 billion rand, a 7-month high which is a key concern for the current account over the rest of the year. Despite this, the ZAR has managed to hold firm against the USD, although traders are weary as to how this will be sustainable going forward.
International news
Investor confidence in the USD has slipped as lawmakers failed to reach an agreement on budget legislation by midnight on Monday night. This stalemate in the US seems to have overshadowed recently released weak Chinese figures that have hit commodities, as this data would normally put pressure on the ZAR.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:00 SA Kagiso manufacturing PMI
• 09:00 SA Naamsa vehicle sales y/y
• 08:30 GB PMI manufacturing
• 12:58 US Markit PMI manufacturing (final)
• 14:00 US ISM manufacturing PMI
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
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ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.9400 – 10.1000
The ZAR has managed to firm up against that USD after a loss in US investor confidence as the US government failed to reach a decision in budget debates which means a partial government shutdown from today. The Rand was trading at R9.9650/$ at 08:59 this morning, 068% up from its close in New York yesterday.
Local news
South Africa’s trade deficit for the month of August has unexpectedly widened to 19.05 billion rand, a 7-month high which is a key concern for the current account over the rest of the year. Despite this, the ZAR has managed to hold firm against the USD, although traders are weary as to how this will be sustainable going forward.
International news
Investor confidence in the USD has slipped as lawmakers failed to reach an agreement on budget legislation by midnight on Monday night. This stalemate in the US seems to have overshadowed recently released weak Chinese figures that have hit commodities, as this data would normally put pressure on the ZAR.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:00 SA Kagiso manufacturing PMI
• 09:00 SA Naamsa vehicle sales y/y
• 08:30 GB PMI manufacturing
• 12:58 US Markit PMI manufacturing (final)
• 14:00 US ISM manufacturing PMI
Foreign exchange South Africa – Let one of our professional consultants at Currency Solutions assist you. To know more about how we can help you Contact Us
Want to know where the markets are? View our Live Currency Rates
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