Trade report 03/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.9300 – 10.1000
The Rand managed to stay steady yesterday and outperform most of its EM peers. But considering how the dollar index has fallen with the on-going budget crisis, the ZARs performance remains lacking. The Rand was trading at R10.0100 at 08:37 this morning, 0.2% down from its close in New York yesterday.
Local news
The ZAR has made a recent habit of either outperforming or underperforming its EM peers on a daily basis. This points to a volatile currency which is battling a wide current account deficit, and questions are now being asked about the likelihood of another ratings downgrade as yesterday another commodity-centred EM, Brazil, was downgraded from a positive to a stable outlook.
International news
Trading is likely to be autious today ahead of the US non-farm payrolls data due to be released tomorrow, although with disruptions caused by the US government shutdown this release may be delayed. Added to this US growth outlook remains under pressure as long as the government is at a standstill.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Switch auction
• 09:30 SA SACCI business confidence index
• 08:30 GB PMI services
• 12:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 12:30 US Factory orders y/y (Postponed)
• 14:00 US ISM non-manufacturing composite
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