Trade report 23/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7000 – 9.8500
The ZAR rallied yesterday and achieved a one month high against the USD after the US nonfarm payrolls data release which came in softer than expected. The ZAR was slightly weaker this morning and was trading at R9.7750/$ at 08:47GMT, 0.26% down from its close in New York yesterday.
Local news
The mini-budget statement by Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan this afternoon is the main topic in local news today as investors are hoping to see progress in SA addressing its current account deficit. Economists are hopeful that the CPI index will have slowed to 6% y/y in September from 6.4% in August due to lower food and fuel prices. This would put the index back in the target 3 – 6% range and would likely boost the ZAR.
International news
The soft US nonfarm payrolls data released yesterday has added to the argument that the Federal Reserve Bank will delay the start of QE tapering. This put the USD under pressure yesterday and emerging markets including the ZAR enjoyed a day of strong gains.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 08:00 SA CPI y/y
• 12:00 SA Fin Min Gordhan presents Medium-Term budget
• 08:30 GB BoE releases MPC minutes
• 11:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 12:30 US Import price index y/y
• 13:00 US House price index m/m
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