Trade report 02/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.0600 – 10.2200
The USD has been under pressure this week due to the partial government shutdown, but late yesterday it managed to strengthen significantly as US ISM manufacturing data came in very strong at its best level since March 2011. The ZAR opened at R10.1450/$ in trading this morning, not far off its close in New York last night.
Local news
The ZAR has not been able to sustain its recent comeback against the USD as local PMI manufacturing data released yesterday was disappointing. The PMI index fell to an 8-month low of 49.1 as a strike in the auto-sector hurt the sales of new vehicles. The fact that not all EM currencies have softened to the USD points towards a ZAR under-performance.
International news
The strong US PMI data released yesterday would normally be another indicator to the markets that the FED will begin QE tapering sooner rather than later. However, the partial government shutdown due to inconclusive budget debates is an obstacle that will likely need to be resolved before traders are confident that this is the case.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 08:30 GB PMI construction
• 11:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 12:15 US ADP employment change
• 13:45 US ISM New York
• 16:00 US Fed’s Rosengren speaks
• 19:20 US Fed’s Bullard, Bernanke speaks on community banks
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