Trade report 18/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7590 – 9.9000
The USD has failed to rebound despite the resolution of the US debt ceiling issue, as the possibility of QE tapering being pushed out to December at the earliest is high, which may put strain on the USD. The Rand traded near a one month high this morning and at 06:08GMT was at R9.8200/$, in line with its close in New York on Thursday.
Local news
The majority of EM currencies have enjoyed a week of firm trading, albeit low volumes, against the USD as the US has battled budget issues. The ZAR has been more of a middle-of-the-road performer as it is held back by local issues such as its wide c/a balance and the constant threat of strike action.
International news
General focus in the markets has now shifted to the increasing probability that the Fed will delay QE tapering until December at the earliest as the US recovers from the government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis which has left the economy shaken. It is also worth noting that China’s GDP data for Q3 came in stronger at 7.8% compared to 7.5% in Q2 which may be good news for the ZAR in the months ahead as it may support the struggling export industry.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 02:00 CN Real GDP y/y
• 02:00 CN Industrial production YTD y/y
• 12:00 US Fed’s Lacker speaks
• 14:00 US Leading indicators
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