Trade report 07/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.90 – 10.0500
The main talk in the markets remains the partial government shut-down as Republicans and Democrats failed to come to an agreement by the end of last week. The ZAR weakened slightly this morning to R10.050/$ but is likely to remain range-bound as long as the US budget impasse continues.
Local news
Good news for the ZAR is the news that the NUM has ended its 4-week strike. This strike is reported to have cost the industry $2.0bn in lost output and had a severe impact on local Q3 GDP stats. The strikes in general will also no doubt have more negative implications further down the line as companies such as BMW indicate that they will no longer consider expansion in SA due to the disruptive labour climate.
International news
The US budget stalemate has caused data releases to be postponed and has raised doubts about the timing of the tapering of the Federal Reserve’s bond buying programme. The has helped the ZAR stay firm and it is likely to continue to trade in a narrow range until the US stalemate issue is resolved.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 06:00 SA Net reserves (USD)
• 19:00 US Consumer Credit (USD)
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