Trade report 25/10/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.7200 – 9.8200
General feeling in the markets is that the FED will delay QE tapering and this is helping the ZAR which firmed against the USD yesterday after the jitters over the mini-budget calmed down. The Rand was 0.3% up on the USD from Wednesdays close at R9.97725/$ although today talks of mining strikes are weighing on the local currency.
Local news
The ZAR had a brief boost after the release of the mini-budget but is now under pressure due to fears of another bout of mining strikes. AMCU may go on strike after wage talks have failed to reach an agreement. The next local data release will be on Tuesday when unemployment figures and private sector borrowing figures will be released.
International news
Emerging markets are currently benefitting from the general feeling by investors that the US Federal Reserve Bank will delay QE tapering. This is helping the ZAR although of the EM’s SA remains one of the worst performing currencies, most likely due to its high budget and current account deficit.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 08:30 GB GDP y/y (advance)
• 12:30 US Durable goods orders
• 13:55 US Michigan consumer confidence
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