Trade report 02/09/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1600 – 10.3000
After reaching a 4 year low last week the Rand has managed to rally against the USD and opened this morning at 10.19 to the dollar. A cautious week on the markets is expected as we wait to hear the latest developments on the Syrian saga as well as interest rate decisions by the BOE and the European Central Bank.
Local news
Locally as strikes continue in various sectors; a new strike is set to begin in the gold industry from Tuesday as miners demand higher wages; and investors have largely sold off EM assets due to Syrian uncertainty, the ZAR has found itself in an increasingly fragile position. The latest talk is that the SARB will need to step in and increase interest rates in an effort to protect the currency. This was highlighted by the rallying of the ZAR on Friday afternoon after Finance Mimister Pravin Gordhan mentioned that the government may intervene to support the currency.
International news
The delay in military action against Syria and positive Chinese data released on Friday were both factors in the steadying of the Rand on Friday. Today is likely to be a quieter day on the markets with it being a public holiday in the US for Labour Day which should help the ZAR remain steady for the start of the week.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS:
• 09:00 SA Naamsa vehicle sales y/y
• 09:00 SA Kagiso PMI
• 08:30 GB PMI Manufacturing
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