Trade report 10/09/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.8900 – 10.0500
The ZAR was trading close to its strongest level in a month yesterday at around 9.9500 after US data came out softer than expected on Friday and the news of a possible halt of US air strike action against Syria. This has had positive effects on not just the Rand but the majority of emerging markets.
Local news
Important data due out today over South Africa's current account gap has caused the Rand to soften slightly today. Economists expect the gap to widen to 5.95% of GDP from 5.8% in the first quarter, and this has kept investors weary of the ZAR despite the positive international news. In addition persistent local strike action feeds the Rands general negative sentiment.
International news
President Obama’s statement that the US may hold off on military action, should the Russian proposal of Syria handing over its chemical weapon stocks be followed through, has helped 21 out of 24 EM currency’s show definite gains. This has been aided by improved confidence in the Chinese economy and recent doubts cast over when QE tapering will begin.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 08:00 SA Current account balance as a % of GDP
• 09:30 SA Bond auction
• 05:30 CN Industrial production y/y
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