Trade report 06/09/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1800 – 10.3500
News that the strike in the gold sector may be close to a resolution has helped the ZAR hold onto its gains against the dollar. The Rand was around 10.22 to the USD in early morning trading after closing at 10.23 last night in New York. The Rand remains under pressure though as US data due out is likely to point toward QE tapering in the near future.
Local news
The ZAR remains one of the more vulnerable EM currencies as the strikes in the auto sector, clothing sector and gold sector continue to deter investors. The NUM is optimistic that the wage increase negotiation will be concluded today and this news has helped keep the ZAR firmer than originally expected overnight. There are reports that some workers have even returned to work but no official statement has been released.
International news
With important US data regarding nonfarm payrolls and unemployment due out at 12.30 GMT today, investors will be watching the markets closely. The Rand is under pressure due to talks of the FED tapering QE at its next meeting, and it is expected that the US data released today will support this theory. This will affect all EM currencies as investors return to safe havens like the USD.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 06:00 SA Net reserves (USD)
• 09:30 SA ILB Auction
• 08:30 GB Industrial production y/y
• 08:30 GB Manufacturing production y/y
• 08:30 GB Visible trade balance (GBP)
• 12:00 US FED’s Evans speaks
• 12:30 US Nonfarm payrolls
• 12:30 US Unemployment rate
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