Trade report 12/09/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.8100 – 9.9800
Despite the poor SA Import data released this week and the on-going strike action the ZAR ended the day yesterday as the best performing EM currency and closed at 9.8750 against the USD. The general feeling is that international sentiment and not local news is driving the EM currencies at the moment.
Local news
Locally, strikes in various sectors continue and vehicle production looks set to come to a halt by the end of this week, but manufacturing data for July that was released yesterday was surprisingly positive. This has helped the Rand maintain its firmer levels reached earlier in the week. SA mining production data is due to be released today which could pressurise the ZAR if it disappoints investors.
International news
EM currencies have generally performed better this week. US jobless claims and US retail sales data are due out tomorrow. These are key data points and may provide investors a hint of what decision will be taken at the FOMC meeting next week regarding QE tapering. The ZAR may as a result be subject to more volatility ahead of the week-end.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Mining production y/y
• 12:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 12:30 US Import price index y/y
• 18:00 US Monthly budget statement
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