Trade report 13/09/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.9100 –10.0700
The ZAR was trading at 9.9715 at 06:36 GMT this morning – only slightly softer than it’s close in NYC last night. Despite reaching a 4-week high this week traders are doubtful that the Rand will make any more significant gains today as the much anticipated FOMC meeting is scheduled for next week, and this has investors nervous about the start of QE tapering.
Local news
SA mining and production data was released this week and both showed improvements of 5% y/y and 0.6% y/y respectively. This failed to impact significantly on the ZAR however, as investors are not confident this will be sustained, especially with the recent gold mining strike and other various on-going strikes affecting the economy further down the line.
International news
US data over jobless claims was not accurate as two states failed to submit their figures on time. But today’s data on US retail sales will be closely watched ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. The ZAR has enjoyed a relatively good week, but concerns over the withdrawal of investment from EMs if the FED starts QE tapering has traders expecting a volatile Rand in the days ahead.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB Auction (800mn)
• 12:30 US PPI y/y
• 12:30 US Advice retail sales m/m
• 13:55 US Michigan consumer confidence (preliminary)
• 14:00 US Business inventories
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