Trade report 03/09/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1900 – 10.3500
The ZAR held steady against the USD overnight and opened at 10.265 this morning. Despite the quiet start to the week as the US celebrated Labour Day yesterday, the ZAR remains vulnerable, mainly due to US data set to be released this week, and on-going strikes locally. This may accelerate foreign outflows as investors turn to safe-havens such as the USD.
Local news
The latest on the local strike news is that workers at petrol stations and car dealerships have postponed their strike for a week. More positive news is that clothing and textile workers have reached a wage agreement with their bosses, so have returned to work. However, the National Union of Mineworkers is set to go on strike from today – this will cost the economy more than $35 per day in lost output.
International news
The ZAR has managed to hold relatively steady following the decreased threat of military action in Syria and the positive Chinese data released. But as we approach the next FOMC meeting which should shed more light on QE tapering expectations, investors will be weary of key US Data being released this week (trade numbers, jobless claims, services PMI) which may keep the Rand subdued.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS:
• 09:30 SA Bond auction (R2048 – 900mn, R2037 – 550mn, R214 – 900mn)
• 09:30 SA SACCI business confidence
• 10:00 SA BER business confidence
• 08:30 GB PMI construction
• 12:58 US Markit PMI Manufacturing (final)
• 14:00 US ISM manufacturing PMI
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