Trade report 11/09/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.9200 – 10.1000
The Rand remained volatile yesterday as SA import data released was worse than expected, causing the Rand to soften to 10.0345 against the USD by 06.18 GMT on Wednesday. The poor data and ongoing local issues meant that the ZAR was one of only 3 EM currencies to weaken against the dollar.
Local news
The widening trade account in Africa’s biggest economy was the talk of the day yesterday as the data showed that SA continues to import more than it exports. Local strikes also continue with NAAMSA stating that the auto industry is set to lose about R20bn in production in the latest strike. Manufacturing data is due out today at 11:00GMT and will likely add further pressure to the ZAR if it disappoints market expectations.
International news
The next FOMC meeting is to be held next week which may have investors staying away from EM assets until there is confirmation one way or the other on QE tapering. But the news that President Obama has requested a delay on the vote on the Syrian airstrike will at least keep geopolitical tensions at bay for the meantime, which should help buffer the EM currencies.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 11:00 SA Manufacturing production n.s.a y/y
• 08:30 GB ILO unemployment rate
• 11:00 US MBA mortgage applications
• 14:00 US Wholesale inventories
• 14:00 US Wholesale sales
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