Trade report 19/09/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 9.4700 – 9.6500
The Rand has enjoyed near four month highs against the USD after the announcement of the FEDs surprise decision to maintain its asset-buying purchases at the current levels. The ZAR gained over 2% overnight, trading at 9.5660 to the dollar at 8.30 this morning. Economists were confident the FED would begin QE tapering and the announcement to the contrary has shocked markets wordwide.
Local news
The strengthening of the Rand over the last week has helped reduce losses to the USD from 19% a few weeks ago to 13%, which will definitely help ease policymakers concerns over rising imported price pressures. The SARB will also announce its interest rate decision today. Economists are fairly confident interest rates will remain unchanged for the time being despite inflation data exceeding the 3 – 6% target range.
International news
Emerging markets across the board have been buoyed by the FED’s decision to maintain QE at the current levels. Combined with the fact that Chinese growth sentiment has stabilised, EMs are expected to enjoy a period of accelerated growth at least for the short-term.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 04:00 SA TransUnion consumer credit index
• 13:00 SA SARB rate announcement
• 08:30 GB Retail sales excluding auto fuel y/y
• 12:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 12:30 US Current account balance (USD)
• 14:00 US Philadelphia Fed index
• 14:00 US Existing home sales
• 14:00 US Leading indicators
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