Trade report 08/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1800 – 10.3400
In an unexpected move yesterday, the ECB cut interest rates. This and the soft SA mining and manufacturing data released yesterday helped push the ZAR to its lowest level in more than 2 months. The Rand closed at R10.2925/$ last night but steadied this morning as investors cautiously await the key US non-farm payrolls data due out later today.
Local news
Both mining and manufacturing data came in well below consensus estimates. This data helps highlight the negative effect the strike action has on the local industries, but will also more than likely mean the SARB will keep interest rates low for the medium term to promote growth. This leaves the ZAR exposed due to its economic imbalances.
International news
US Initial jobless claims and GDP q/q data released out of the US yesterday came in firmer than expected pointing towards a firming of QE tapering expectations and boosting the USD, however investors are trading cautiously today ahead of the key non-Farm payrolls data due for release later in the day.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 07:00 DE Trade balance (EUR)
• 09:30 GB Visible trade balance (GBP)
• 13:30 US Nonfarm payrolls
• 13:30 US Unemployment rate
• 13:30 US PCE core y/y
• 14:55 US Michigan consumer confidence (preliminary)
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