Trade report 27/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.0900 – 10.2300
The Rand has retreated against the USD this morning and at 08:45 GMT was more than 0.2% off it’s Tuesday close at R10.1440/$. The markets seem to be moving away from risky assets as investors are selling off local bonds, which is not good for the Rand. Combined with the poor GDP data released yesterday the ZAR has been struggling in the last two sessions.
Local news
SA’s Q3 GDP, released yesterday, increased by only 0.7% q/q which is below the general estimate of 1.0% and well below the Q2 figure of 2%, meaning that the 2013 growth target of 2% looks unachievable as well. Not only does this add pressure to the Rand but it also highlights the effects of the recent strikes that went on for weeks and warns of another low Q4 figure as, although mostly resolved, there are still some strikes on-going.
International news
The markets are relatively quiet, although trading volumes are still medium-high, as we approach the end of the year. With little key data due for release, the primary driver is speculation over the timing of the Fed taper, which keeps the pressure on the emerging market currencies.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:00 DE GfK consumer confidence
• 09:30 GB GDP y/y (preliminary)
• 13:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 13:30 US Durable goods orders m/m
• 13:30 US Chicago Fed activity index
• 14:45 US Chicago PMI
• 14:55 US Michigan consumer confidence (final)
• 15:00 US Leading indicators
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