Trade report 26/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.0200 – 10.1700
The Rand has been trading in a relatively narrow band and this morning at 08:34 GMT was barely off Mondays close in New York, at R10.1000/$. Trading volumes were above the November average although news in the markets was fairly quiet with very little data being released.
Local news
Today sees the release of South Africa’s Q3 GDP which is most likely what the ZAR will take its direction from. Better than expected figures will certainly boost the currency although the figure is expected to come in at around 1.2% quarter-on-quarter expansion, which is weaker than the previous quarters growth at 3%. Recent strike action is one of the primary factors hampering the GDP growth and also has a negative effect on investor sentiment.
International news
With little key data from major economies due, the markets have adopted a “wait-and-see” approach and there is little information for markets to take direction from. November has been a tough month for “the fragile five” as the markets start to move away from risky assets. Foreigners have sold R13bn of local bonds month-to-date and these portfolio flows are not helping the Rands outlook.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA GDP q/q annualised
• 13:30 US Building permits
• 14:00 US S&P/Case=Shiller house price composite-20 y/y
• 14:00 US House price index m/m
• 15:00 US Consumer confidence
• 15:00 US Richmond Fed manufacturing index
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