Trade report 07/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1800 – 10.3300
The ZAR has been trading in a narrow range and at 08:43 GMT was at R10.2760/$, very close to its R10.2630 close in New York yesterday evening. It is generally thought that the Rand will remain steady as investors await key data releases scheduled for later today – the US Jobless claims, Q3 GDP and the BoE rate announcement.
Local news
The Rand remains vulnerable and prone to underperformance due to weak structural factors such as a wide current account and budget account deficit. On-going mining strikes and violence are knocking investor confidence, although focus today will be on domestic output data for the mining and manufacturing sectors in September.
International news
With investor confidence in the ZAR on the decline, economists will be watching the key international data due out today. Soft US data will add to the argument for the pushing out of QE tapering expectations and maybe help keep the Rand steady for the moment.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 06:00 SA Net reserves (USD)
• 09:30 SA Switch auction
• 09:30 SA Mining production y/y
• 11:00 DE Industrial production y/y
• 12:00 GB BoE rate announcement
• 12:45 EZ ECB rate announcement
• 13:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 13:30 US GDP q/q annualized (advanced)
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