Trade report 21/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1000 – 10.2500
The ZAR made strong gains late yesterday reaching a 2 and a half week high of R10.0515/$, but this morning dropped down to R10.1900 by 08:38GMT after the FOMC October minutes pointed to the start of QE tapering in the coming months. The Chinese flash manufacturing PMI data released yesterday will also likely add pressure to EM currencies.
Local news
Local news today is mostly focussed on the SARB policy decision statement at its final policy meeting of the year. With the Rand under pressure due to Fed tapering expectations, domestic prices including petrol will be on the increase. General feeling is that the SARB will leave interest rates unchanged despite weak economic growth.
International news
EM currencies are feeling some strain after their two to three weeks of recovery as the FOMC minutes confirmed general feeling that QE tapering will begin in the next few months. Added to this Chinese PMI data dropped from 50.9 to 50.4 which will add pressure to commodity linked currencies such as the ZAR and the AUD.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA Switch auction
• 13:00 SA SARB rate announcement
• 08:30 DE PMI manufacturing (advance)
• 09:00 EZ PMI manufacturing (advance)
• 13:30 US Initial jobless claims
• 13:30 US PPI y/y
• 13:58 US Markit PMI manufacturing
• 15:00 US Philadelphia Fed index
• 15:00 EZ Consumer confidence (advance)
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