Trade report 15/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.2100 – 10.3500
The Rand has managed to hold onto its recent gains and this morning was trading at R10.2000/$, up from its local close yesterday of R10.3500/$. Janet Yellen’s dovish comments and the good news that SA has adjusted its trade balance calculations which now shows a trade deficit of R34.6bn from the previous R116.9bn, has helped the ZAR firm up.
Local news
SARS has announced that the SA trade deficit is due to be cut almost in half. The inclusion of trade numbers with SA’s neighbours, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland, has helped boost the trade figures, which although still uncomfortably large, should have a large impact on the current account balance when the Q3 data is released in December.
International news
US data released yesterday had little impact in the markets as the Feds comments about the state of the economy and the timing of QE tapering were the main focus of the day. This was good news for risky emerging market currencies which enjoyed a day of buoyed trading.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA ILB auction (R800mn)
• 10:00 EZ CPI y/y (final)
• 13:30 US Empire manufacturing
• 13:30 US Import price index
• 14:15 US Industrial production m/m
• 15:00 US Wholesale inventories
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