Trade report 011/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.2600 – 10.3800
The ZAR is managing to stay relatively steady this morning after it took a knock on Friday afternoon. US payrolls data came in much stronger than expected, boosting the USD and putting pressure on emerging markets. At 06:25 GMT the Rand was trading around R10.3350/$ and looked to stay within the wide range of 10.2250 and 10.4050 in today’s quieter session.
Local news
The ZAR remains under pressure with recent local data pointing to a rather bleak view around growth trajectory and the wide current account deficit. Retail sales data is due for release this week and is expected to confirm this. On-going mining labour unrest also continues to hamper investor sentiment, and is one of the main contributors to the Rands 22% drop against the greenback so far this year.
International news
The positive US data released last week has spurred on the argument that the FED may introduce QE tapering earlier than the expected March next year. This would add to the pressure on the already vulnerable emerging markets.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 08:00 SA SARB Dep. Gov. Mminele remarks published on SARB website
• US Veterans Day (stock markets open, bond markets closed)
• O/N JP Current account total (JPY)
• O/N JP Trade balance (JPY)
• 17:00 EZ ECB’s Weidmann speaks
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