Trade report 28/11/2013
ZAR outlook
USD/ZAR expected range: 10.1500 – 10.2900
The persistent foreign outflows from SA and poor economic growth data released this week took its toll on the Rand late yesterday and during this morning’s session as the ZAR dropped to R10.2325 by 08:59GMT this morning. The Thanksgiving holiday in the US today should give the Rand a breather and allow it to steady, although the large budget and current account deficits means the ZAR remains vulnerable.
Local news
Comments made by SARB Deputy Gov Kganyago hinted that while the SARB suggested a more hawkish leaning towards interest rates at its latest meeting, that its core stance remains a dovish one. He mentioned that consumers are battling debt and therefore vulnerable to higher rates and that the exchange rate “should not dominate our thinking.”
International news
Today looks to be a quiet day as the US celebrates Thanksgiving which means trading volumes should be low. There are a few data releases scheduled in the Eurozone countries which might be of interest in the ECB policy thinking, but tomorrows EZ CPI figure will most likely be more relevant.
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS (GMT):
• 09:30 SA PPI y/y
• US Market holiday (Thanksgiving Day)
• 08:55 DE Unemployment rate sa
• 09:00 EZ M3 money supply sa y/y
• 10:00 EZ Consumer confidence (final)
• 13:00 DE CPI y/y (preliminary)
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